This coming Friday, September 10th, is the climatological peak of the hurricane season â€“ and its possible that it could be a quiet event this year. Earl is now an extra-tropical storm heading for Newfoundland. The former Gaston, which seemed to be on its way toward recovery now looks like an open wave again. Yesterday some of the models suggested that Gaston would become a major hurricane in four or five days â€“ and this evening some of the models drop the system completely. This provides us with an excellent example of why reliance on model output can be risky business.

Gaston still needs to be watched because what degenerated today can regenerate again tomorrow. The Basin itself has seen a return to a more widespread shear-prone environment - and that is an environment that is less favorable for development â€“ especially long-term development.

The wave just off Africa on Saturday â€“ the former Invest 99L â€“ no longer has any realistic chance for development and the Invest area has been dropped. It became the victim of some shearing from a trough to its north, and from the ever present SAL this year.

There is an area in the southwestern Gulf of Mexico that showed a tendency toward further development on Saturday but the convection has been on the wane in the past few hours. Its still an area worth monitoring (probably the best area at the moment) for a few days as it moves slowly to the north northwest toward the Texas/Mexico border.

Another strong tropical wave will exit the west coast of Africa in two or three days and this one could have a much better chance for eventual development.
ED