Domino
(Weather Guru)
Wed May 10 2006 03:14 PM
TS Chanchu

I just arrived back in Manila for work and I see TS Chanchu is headed right here. Looks to be a typhoon before it arrives. Going to be an interesting week in Manila! I'll be sure and update as the government here gives warnings and such. I am really curious to hear how they address a storm in a third world country.

I brought along a digital camera and also a handheld weather station (wind, pressure, ect). Should provide more info than the local tv stations I believe.

Anyone have any experience with Pacific basin storms or anything to add?

BTW...evacuation is not an option here so please don't flame me for staying where a storm is forecasted to head. This storm was not in existance when I left home.


Domino
(Weather Guru)
Thu May 11 2006 11:19 AM
Re: TS Chanchu

What is now Typhoon Chanchu looks like it'll pass just to the south of Manila in about 36 hours. There is no mention of this storm in the media here at all. Speaking with coworkers here they basically tell me I'm crazy and a typhoon can't hit Manila and they always go off some other direction. One said "oh it'll just pass by." Can someone who has experience in this area tell me if they are living with their heads in the sand or if there is some mystical power around Manila protecting it from storms?

http://www.npmoc.navy.mil/jtwc/warnings/wp0206.gif

Graphic changed to link to keep table inline.~danielw


Domino
(Weather Guru)
Thu May 11 2006 03:37 PM
Re: TS Chanchu

Although I think I'm talking to myself I notice this thread gets a lot of views so I'll continue to update.

The local forecast and current updates shows wind speeds of roughly half that of the Joint Typhoon Warning Center. The current signal 2 warning area is for 60-100kph winds and the last update I had from the JTWC was already at 140kph winds. I wonder why such a huge variation?

At this point it is roughly 24 hours out from Manila. The Japenese tropical weather prediction center has tropical storm force winds in Manila within the next few hours.

The local forecast center was suppose to issue an update 40 minutes ago. No updates though..

Currently outside we've had off and on showers and it is very muggy. I forgot to take my weather station outside but current pressure is 1004.


Domino
(Weather Guru)
Thu May 11 2006 03:45 PM
Typhoon Chanchu aka Tropical Storm Caloy

Shortly after the last post they did update and it appears they are starting to come to terms with the fact a typhoon is hitting the country. They are still calling it a Tropical Storm, contradicting the JTWC. They also still have the wind speed significantly lower than the JTWC. Oddly they also have a different name for the storm. They call it Caloy, everyone else in the world calls it Chanchu..

My area is now at a Signal 2 warning (60-100kph winds).

The area currently under the gun is now at Signal 3 (100-180kph winds).

This is on a scale of 1-4 which can be found at Philippines Signal Scale


hockeyucf
(Registered User)
Thu May 11 2006 04:22 PM
Re: Typhoon Chanchu aka Tropical Storm Caloy

You're not talking to youself!
Please keep us updated, and from a Floridian who has been through it (several times), don't forget to Hunker Down!

Cara


Margie
(Senior Storm Chaser)
Fri May 12 2006 04:49 PM
Have handheld weather station, will travel?

Chanchu is passing over the Philippines as a weak typhoon, equivalent to Cat 1 or possibly Cat 2. It did finally get convection wrapped around yesterday...appeared that it may have been sheared a bit before that from the NW, or had some dry air intrusion as well.

While a little messy looking now, it is forecast in the latest JTWC warning #16 to strengthen just up to Cat 4 strength, about two days from now, before hitting mainland China -- but JMA forecast keeps it a low-end typhoon during that time period.

I've been kind of busy this week or would have posted on this thread sooner, but I've been keeping an eye on 02W this week.


CaneTrackerInSoFl
(Storm Tracker)
Fri May 12 2006 09:26 PM
Re: Have handheld weather station, will travel?

I know its stupid but anyone see how ridiculously close the forecast track is to the super typhoon simulation discovery channel ran for if the worst case scenario over Hong Kong?

Margie
(Senior Storm Chaser)
Fri May 12 2006 10:50 PM
Re: Have handheld weather station, will travel?

I think it is going to be a little to far to the west on the current track for Hong Kong to get the worst, but since it's at least several days out it's not really possible to gauge. Close enough for discomfort though because the most recent JTWC warning (#17) now has the typhoon not missing a beat while travelling over the Philippines, and up to 125kts in 60 hrs! (I think because it'll get some good outflow going, coming under that high?). However -- weakening to 105kts before landfall, still a significant storm. Something to definitely watch early next week, and possibly some spectacular sat images for Sunday night and Monday morning, while it is still well over the open ocean.

Domino
(Weather Guru)
Sat May 13 2006 12:28 AM
Re: Have handheld weather station, will travel?

Nice to see others out there Luckily, I suppose, this storm turned a bit south. The forecast track a couple days ago had it nailing us in Manila with a direct hit. Today we are experiencing effects of the storm. We are getting rain bands every so often and some gusty winds. Unfortunately there is no place for me to go that is unprotected..but with my handheld station I have recorded as high as a 26.5 mph wind in a protected area.

The pressure is dropping in Manila. Yesterday morning it was 1007, last night on the way to work 1000, this morning down to 998. Dew point is a whopping 78 and outside temperature is 79.

I'm staying on the 16th floor of the Mandarin Oriental and I have a great view of the city. Lights are flickering on occasion but that's about it here.

I am still amazed by the difference between the JTWC and the local weather agency. The local agency last night was forecasting for this thing to recurve before ever hitting land and spinning out to sea in the Pacific. Not a single model was forecasting that. Also the local agency continues to call this a tropical storm and downplays the wind speed. I know if I'm getting 26.5 mph winds in a protected area over 200 miles from the center...they are getting a LOT more down there.

Talking to locals they say basically it never is forecasted for any typhoon to hit Manila. May I quote one..."if it does...surprise!" My theory is basically there is nowhere to go here so alerting the public would probably do nothing more than cause panic. Any thoughts?

Oh PS...I work here about 1/4 of the year, the rest of the time I live in Indianapolis. So far I've been here for a 5.8 earthquake, a coup attempt, a stampeed, a mudslide and now...a typhoon.


Unregistered User
(Unregistered)
Sat May 13 2006 02:16 AM
Re: Typhoon Chanchu aka Tropical Storm Caloy

I have always had the same question as to why the Philippines changes names of storms and the only answer I have found is "tropical depressions that enter or form in the Philippines area of responsibility are assigned a name by PAGASA (Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical, and Astronomical Services Administration - www.pagasa.dost.gov.ph). This can often result in the same storm having two names".

The Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration (PAGASA) uses its own naming scheme for tropical cyclones within its area of responsibility. Lists are recycled every four years.

If anyone know the answer as to why PAGASA changes the names of storms I sure would appreciate you taking the time to answer our question.

As for the storm, I live on Manila Bay, and do not have a handheld device that tracks wind speed, but can tell you it is WINDY! Palms are almost horizontal!

I have experienced many tropical storms in metro manila and it is just that...a tropical storm. Signal one and signal two from my experiences here, are just a windy rainy storm.

Hold onto your hats!

Barbiemanila


Margie
(Senior Storm Chaser)
Sat May 13 2006 03:11 AM
Re: Typhoon Chanchu aka Tropical Storm Caloy

Well I take that back about Hong Kong not being in this storm's sights. JTWC just put out warning #18 and it is bullseyeing that direction. Good news is they dropped back on the intensity forecast, and they really drop it down just before landfall, so that while it's likely to be larger, it won't be very much more powerful than it was just before it hit the Philippines.

But even the equivalent of a Cat 1 or Cat 2, there will be the same issue with high rises getting more wind, so definitely something to prepare for in Hong Kong. Luckily they are getting quite a lot of advance notice on this one.

JMA is still forecasting a lower intensity (even accounting for the difference between the 1-minute and 10-minute windspeeds).


CaneTrackerInSoFl
(Storm Tracker)
Sun May 14 2006 12:24 PM
Re: Typhoon Chanchu aka Tropical Storm Caloy

Anybody else now slightly worried this may be Hong Kong's big one?

Margie
(Senior Storm Chaser)
Sun May 14 2006 01:52 PM
Attachment
Re: Typhoon Chanchu aka Tropical Storm Caloy

Chanchu bombed last night and is somewhere in the neighborhood of 115kts. Latest JTWC (#23) has her max sustained winds to 135kts -- Cat 5.

Last night I knew she was going to bomb, and not increase gradually as was forecast. Convection was almost completely wrapped around by 0000Z...the 0030 water vapor clearly showed dry air being pulled into the center (to mix in and clear out the eye) and I figured by 1200Z the eye would be cleared out (it is still in the folding-looking stage and so looks like it will take more like 24 hours than 12). Slept in, and just got up and fed the furball, and the microwave pass (attached) was just posted about a minute before I sat down at the computer. Looking very mean. Now she's in the process I think of consolidating and those spiral bands will diminish over the day.

Still targeted to hit Hong Kong dead on. This is extremely grim. I spent about an hour late last night looking at many Hong Kong web cams (independentwx.com) -- it was around noonish their time. I have never seen such a large metropolitan area (over several islands) or as many high-rises in my life, as many as four or five NYC and north Jersey put together. And all the islands are connected by tunnels. I couldn't get to sleep until after midnight after seeing all that and the sat images. I just hope it works out that various factors combine to weaken her considerably before landfall -- but even landfalling as a solid Cat 2 will be a problem for all those skyscrapers.


Margie
(Senior Storm Chaser)
Sun May 14 2006 03:30 PM
Attachment
Typhoon Chanchu bombing

Oh brother -- it consolidated a lot quicker than I thought it would. Looks like a Cat 4 now. Check out the latest IR (attached).

Per the latest JTWC prog, intensity may be capped (albeit, at 135kts!) by lack of a good outflow channel. After seeing the GOM storms this past season we all know how important outflow can be in ramping up and maintaining intensity. Also noted that it may have a hard time maintaining that intensity. It appears that regardless it is going to strike Hong Kong area as a very strong storm. I haven't seen anything much about it on our news here, but since they have more warning than we did with Katrina, I hope they are able to to make some good preparations. I just can't get all those images of skyscrapers out of my mind.

* * * * *
The rate of intensity increase looks to have suddenly come to a halt, although the IR is quite symmetric, but it appears on CIMMS upper level wind analysis that an outflow channel is developing, and conditions for the next 12 hours look even better for strengthening, so I still think that late this evening and tomorrow morning we'll be looking at 130kts sustained (1min avg) or more. JMA's intensity forecasts are very much lower than JTWC. Hong Kong Observatory has it curving east towards the Taiwan Straight and missing Hong Kong, but the reliable models show it dead on for Hong Kong, so I hope that people there are getting the right message and preparing.


Unregistered User
(Unregistered)
Sun May 14 2006 07:11 PM
Re: Typhoon Chanchu bombing

Hello,
I am writing to see anyone has an idea of when Chanchu is predicted to make landfall in Hong Kong.
My husband is there for work and has booked a flight to come home on Tuesday afternoon.
Earlier I read it was expected to hit on Thursday, I just wanted to check for any information that may have changed.
Thank you


Margie
(Senior Storm Chaser)
Sun May 14 2006 07:18 PM
Attachment
Re: Typhoon Chanchu bombing

It is confirmed at Cat 4. The IR images from NRL between 1800 and 1830Z changed the pressure/max winds from 927/115kts to 910/130kts. And the eye still hasn't cleared out. The area to the NW that was having some trouble is pretty much filled in. The storm is very compact and the IR is looking like a plate (attached) -- not quite as good as Mala at her peak but very impressive, cloud top temps at least -85. So what will we be looking at by late tonight? Worse, there's time for an ERC to complete before it gets close to landfall. Outflow has continued to improve as well.

Gee first Monica, then Mala, now Chanchu.


Margie
(Senior Storm Chaser)
Sun May 14 2006 07:32 PM
Attachment
Re: Typhoon Chanchu bombing

Quote:

Hello, I am writing to see anyone has an idea of when Chanchu is predicted to make landfall in Hong Kong. My husband is there for work and has booked a flight to come home on Tuesday afternoon. Earlier I read it was expected to hit on Thursday, I just wanted to check for any information that may have changed. Thank you




That is cutting it very, very close. The airport may be closed by then. He should leave sooner if he can, or at least get off the islands and leave from an inland airport.

http://www.npmoc.navy.mil/jtwc/warnings/wp0206.gif

This graphic will show you the times the winds will start affecting the islands (add eight hours to the UTC time that is displayed). The graphic will be updated shortly with the next warning at 4pm CDT.

Oh and this is why the update to 130kts...attached the AQUA microwave from 1801Z (taken just about at the same time as the IR I posted earlier).


Domino
(Weather Guru)
Sun May 14 2006 07:37 PM
Philippines Aftermath for Chanchu aka Caloy

Headlines of the paper this morning "35 dead in Caloy's wake".
Most of those 35 drowned.

There was nothing more than an alert 2 and for a very short time alert 3 issued for anywhere in the area.
It was downplayed the entire time. The highest acknowledged winds I saw were 115kph and at the time I was recording 25mph winds here the highest alert was for 80kph (I believe it was 80?).

The person living on Manila Bay - I am in Makati City and we didn't get much here except the winds I noted. In Malate there were trees down that I saw last night (large, old growth trees) and there are a considerable number of branches/twigs down around here.

It must be much worse down south where the eye passed over.


Unregistered User
(Unregistered)
Sun May 14 2006 08:20 PM
Re: Typhoon Chanchu bombing

Thank you Margie for the information.
I am horrified. If you have any new updates please keep me posted.
I'll keep watching the links that I have found as well.


Margie
(Senior Storm Chaser)
Sun May 14 2006 08:35 PM
Re: Typhoon Chanchu bombing

Listen, Tiff, this will fall apart rapidly as it heads inland, and so if he can't get a flight out, just go inland.

The main concerns will be storm surge, so the tunnels will be flooded, and also low-lying areas, and then the stronger winds aloft against the high rises. It will be much safer inland.

It is better to prepare now as if there was the chance of a direct hit as a strong storm, and then be glad later if it weakens before landfall, or curves east (not terribly likely but it is possible).

Note: Hong Kong Observatory is still only forecasting max winds of 33kt from the storm. And JMA is forecasting less than 85kt at landfall. JTWC #25 has it at 130 kts currently and brings it up to 145 kts max within 24 hrs. The graphic and prog are not on their web site yet.

* * * * * * *

9pm update -- the next forecast will be out in an hour, and it will be the most interesting one, for a couple of reasons. First, the intensity forecast, as the steady state seems to be ending, and secondly, and more interesting, the move north has started and it appears before crossing 115E. So this may mean a shift in the track forecast, but if so, whether to the east or the west, I don't know. The latest model runs have diverged just a little bit, but the more reliable ones actually shift the track to the west a bit, which would still be bad for HKG.


Unregistered User
(Unregistered)
Sun May 14 2006 08:48 PM
Re: Typhoon Chanchu bombing

Thanks again, I do appreciate it.
I'm a worry wart anyway and this has just scared me to death.
I am supposed to take my mom to dinner in a little bit so I will be unable
to check for new posts. Doesn't mean I'll do anything but think about this
until i get back though. I will forward the info to him as I get it.
I just want him to get home safely and soon!


CaneTrackerInSoFl
(Storm Tracker)
Sun May 14 2006 10:01 PM
Re: Typhoon Chanchu bombing

Isn't this just the slightest bit freaky its turning out almost exactly like the lame discovery channel simulation they did for the worst case scenario series?

Margie
(Senior Storm Chaser)
Mon May 15 2006 02:50 AM
Re: Typhoon Chanchu bombing

#26 is out, and no change to the point of landfall. Current intensity is set at 135kts to increase to max of 140kts.

Hong Kong will start to feel tropical storm force winds by early Wednesday morning, but wind will become gusty and the weather will worsen about 12 hours before that, by Tuesday evening.

The typhoon may speed up as it approaches land and so these effects could occur earlier. To give an example, with Katrina, they were 12 hours earlier than forecast three days before. So unless that's a really early aft flight Tiff he should be looking for an earlier one. And if he can't fly off the island, rent a car and drive off -- get off the islands and get inland.

Since JTWC did not change the track significantly, and since some of the good models are showing a landfall slightly more to the west, this looks like a bad one. Looks like it could hit at a pretty high intensity. Because of the monsoon there is no dry air to cause dry air intrusion (thanks for letting me know that, Steve)...the only inhibiting factor besides the timing of ERCs is the cooler water offshore, and that effect will be minimized if the speed increases. And if it is coming in at 130, 125 kts, well then it wouldn't make much difference if it weakened to 115 kts as that would still be devestating.

This hasn't been in the news much, and I can only hope that people there are preparing for the worst -- and 'worst' may be worse than anything we've seen here by orders of magnitude.

* * * * * * *

Update -- here is the prog, and it is interesting:

A. SUPER TYPHOON (STY) 02W (CHANCHU), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 495 NM SOUTH OF HONG KONG, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 04 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS.

B. STY 02W HAD CONTINUED TO SLOWLY TRACK WESTWARD AND IS JUST NOW STARTING TO SHIFT POLEWARD IN RESPONSE TO A WEAKNESS IN THE SUBTRO- PICAL STEERING RIDGE (STR) ANCHORED OVER SOUTHEASTERN CHINA. THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO TRACK NORTHWARD ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE STR AND IS FORECAST TO MAKE LANDFALL BETWEEN TAUS 48 AND 72. THE AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS, CONSISTING OF NOGAPS, GFDN, AFWA MM5, COAMPS, NCEP GFS, JGSM, JTYM, EGRR, TCLAPS AND WBAR ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS SCENARIO.

C. STY 02W WILL ONLY SLIGHTLY INTENSIFY OVER THE NEXT 12 HOURS AND WILL MAINTAIN SUPER TYPHOON INTENSITY FOR THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS AS THE SYSTEM REMAINS IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT OF EXCELLENT RADIAL OUTFLOW INCLUDING AN EASTWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL PROVIDED BY AN UPPER LEVEL LOW LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 300NM EAST OF THE PHILIPPINES. AS THE SYSTEM APPROACHES LAND IT WILL UNDERGO RAPID DECREASE IN INTENSITY AND BEGIN TO UNDERGO THE EARLY STAGES OF EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION.

That's very good news. That must be quite a stretch of cool water offshore. I've only been watching since last July but needless to say I've never heard of anything like that. I don't know what else would additionally factor into the transition (lack of experience...if any mets are reading this thread and could post some more detail on an explanation it would be very much appreciated).


Unregistered User
(Unregistered)
Mon May 15 2006 03:00 AM
Re: Typhoon Chanchu bombing

Hi Margie
After your response this morning, I called him @ 5am (Hong Kong time).
He has got a flight out of Hong Kong today @ 12:45 pm. He should be boarding in about an hour.
He says the weather there this morning was beautiful but now it's starting to get cloudy.
I cannot believe the lack of information that has been given on the news about this.
I have only heard very small details on the weather channel.
Thank you


HanKFranK
(User)
Mon May 15 2006 03:01 AM
Re: Typhoon Chanchu bombing

hadn't looked at chanchu in about a day. for some reason i keep thinking the forecast track will shift east and drop the threat to the hong kong area. as is, pretty bad situation. lots of real estate to destroy there, and a huge population at risk. on the bright side, by the time the hurricane gets there... if the atlantic rules about hurricanes tending to peak and have their cores flatten thereafter, the winds may not be quite as furious as they're going to be for the next day or two. i don't know the topography of the area that well but hong kong is really built up, so it shouldn't be a problem getting people up above whatever surge chanchu might drive in.
hope for the best for the chinese about to get this typhoon visitation.
HF 0401z15may


Margie
(Senior Storm Chaser)
Mon May 15 2006 03:24 AM
Attachment
Re: Typhoon Chanchu bombing

Quote:

He says the weather there this morning was beautiful but now it's starting to get cloudy.

Thank you


You're more than welcome. Better to be on the safe side.

It definitely is starting to haze over (current image from, 11:17a local time, is attached).


Clark
(Meteorologist)
Mon May 15 2006 06:03 AM
Re: Typhoon Chanchu bombing

Well, the storm beginning ET just prior to landfall can be both good and bad, depending on where the track actually ends up going. The predictability of where the worst effects of the storm will be felt inherently goes down during ET given the transformations occurring within the storm. Specifically, where the strongest winds are moves outward from the center of the cyclone (even though their intensity may decrease) while the outer wind field actually spins up. The storm should be moving fast enough that precipitation amounts aren't too much of a concern, but that's not all good. Instead, this could enhance the potential for high waves to the east of the center, particularly given the intensity of the storm. You see this a lot with ET events, but also to a lesser extent with intense hurricanes accelerating to the north -- think, on a lesser scale, what happened with Dennis and Katrina last year. I'm not saying that will happen here; just something to watch out for. Needless to say, Hong Kong certainly wants to end up on the western side of the cyclone, as the impacts of most transitioning storms start to become even a bit more exaggerated toward the right (here, east) side of the cyclone.

A couple of interesting aspects from a scientific perspective...
1) SSTs all the way to the coastline are at least 26C, not necessarily sufficient to maintain a super typhoon but not enough to bring about any substantial weakening either (given the projected forward speed). There is a pretty sharp SST gradient from here on out, though. Also, as it moves northward, it'll be encountering increasingly strong shear associated with the midlatitude westerlies; this coupled with the SST gradient is likely what is resulting in the model predictions of ET.
2) The record low latitude for an ET event in the Atlantic is held by Michelle in 2001, which started to undergo ET around 20-21N and completed it in the 27-28N range. Looking at the model consensus phase evolution for this system, it looks like ET is projected to begin at about 21-22N and complete anywhere in the 25-27N range. I don't know what the record for the NW Pacific is, but it's not likely to be much further south (if at all). The S. Pacific and S. Indian Ocean are different; ET occurs around 20S quite frequently in those basins owing to the penetration of midlatitude troughs closer to the equator in the S. Hemisphere.

It's going to be a tight one for Hong Kong here over the next few days. Here's hoping for the best for everyone in the region.


Margie
(Senior Storm Chaser)
Mon May 15 2006 12:12 PM
Chanchu is done

Morning -- haven't done more than take a quick look. Chanchu looks done. Strong shear has lopped off all convection on the northern side. It appears to be a cold front? [edit -- both wrong guesses -- just cold water! but there could be a trough, because actually outflow still looks excellent -- I just can't tell]

I should have realized this last night, because before #26 came out, Chanchu looked like it had peaked and was on the downswing, the CDO was starting to become lopsided, and I did say the steady state had changed, but then when they had the intensity increasing for another 24 hours, I thought that I wasn't seeing it right.

Anyway NRL still labels the images at 120kts but no way...doesn't even look to be more than around 105kts now, and once it moves a little further north if the convection continues to erode at this same rate, around the eyewall, then that is it I would guess. I have never seen a strong hurricane get mowed down like this, so I don't know exactly what to expect.

Thanks much Clark -- would definitely be interested in hearing some feedback on what is going on with Chanchu and going back over the last 24 hours how this could have been seen on the sat images (everything is a learning experience).


Unregistered User
(Unregistered)
Mon May 15 2006 12:53 PM
Re: Typhoon Chanchu bombing

It's nice that people are so concerned about the welfare of Hong Kong. And I know that watching storms is exciting... but... I think this thread might be spiraling more out of control than the typhoon itself.

I live in HK...and yes, it's a massive city. I still can't get over the forest of skyscrapers we have (though we also have a lot of beautiful mountains and real forests, too). However, HK is well-equipped and well-aware of the threat of typhoons. I would say they are almost too prepared. The observatory has warnings for every possible scenario at all possible threat levels. Watching TV is blast during typhoon season 'cause there are four or five pretty icons plastered on the top of every channel. There is heavy rainstorm warnings, landslip warnings, flooding warnings, high winds warnings, typhoon warnings, lightening warnings, and more.... But for all of us living in the skyscrapers, we're lucky if we see much of that. I went through a Typhoon Signal No 8 a couple years ago. No. 8 is when they shutdown the entire city. I was kinda excited since I never got to see a real hurricane when I lived in Texas years ago. But it was the most boring day I ever had. A few scattered thunderstorms and some windy gusts. Damage was minimal, but the TV news tried to play it up as much as possible. I also went through a few typhoons last year that caused a lot of rain (not much for wind tho). It rained about 20 inches in 2 days from the reports I saw. In anywhere else that I have lived before, that would be a serious flood. But in HK, it just runs down the mountains and goes back to the sea. The worst problem we suffered was the outbreak of mold in the house. (Note: No, the harbor tunnels and subway tunnels did not get flooded. There was no "Day after tomorrow" scenes of people running through the streets with a huge tsunami behind them.)

Well, these experiences are not direct hits. So what about 1999 when Typhoon York had direct landfall on HK? I love hearing weather horror stories, so I have been making a point about asking all my friends who lived here at that time about it. Guess what? They don't remember it. Now, that's not to say that it was a complete no-show. I looked up the news reports and I found out that two people died. One was windsurfing just before the typhoon hit (hmm...) and one slipped and fell. There was a lot of flooding but mostly in the less developed areas of New Terrorities. For being the worst typhoon to hit HK in decades, it was pretty manageable.

Anyways, my point is....can we please not compare typhoons in HK to Katrina?! There is absolutely no comparison with the destruction. The difference between the infrastructure of areas on the Gulf Coast and HK is huge. For one, HK is a concrete jungle...not a collection of wooden beach houses on a sandy shore. Secondly, the storms over here do not get near as strong as they can in the Gulf. And most importantly, Hong Kong is above sea-level!!

So for anyone else out there with loved ones in HK. Don't worry. And whatever you do, DO NOT TELL THEM TO CROSS THE BORDER INTO MAINLAND. Despite being more inland, you have a lot more problems to worry about it: the infrastructures of the cities, emergency response teams, and everything else.

If you guys want, I'll write back with a report of what happens after the storm passes. Though I doubt it will be a very interesting read.

BTW, what is this crazy TV show people are mentioning about a typhoon hitting HK? I want to see it, sounds like a hoot.


Margie
(Senior Storm Chaser)
Mon May 15 2006 02:16 PM
Attachment
Re: Typhoon Chanchu bombing

Ok I found out that the water temps are very cold this early in the season (image attached) and there isn't much heat potential above about 16 or 17N. This must be why the models showed the transition to ET.

So...definitely the colder temps are having an effect, especially with the slower speed, and that is why the disappearing convection to the north, and why it did not appear to be terribly sheared on sat images.

Regarding the prev posting ("HK is a concrete jungle...not a collection of wooden beach houses on a sandy shore. Secondly, the storms over here do not get near as strong as they can in the Gulf. ").

The northern Gulf Coast is is home to many people who live in permanent housing, not "beach houses." It has been populated for over 200 years. The surge went a considerable distance inland, not just on the beachfront. The idea that there was so much destruction because there were no permanent structures is completely wrong. There was so much destruction, because surge can cause so much destruction.

Chanchu is evidence that storms do get as strong there as in the GOM. It is just early in the season and the water temps are not as warm, so that strength couldn't be maintained above 20N. That does not mean Hong Kong is impervious to strong TC, and the "forest of skyscrapers" is particularly vulnerable to winds, which are stronger above the ground. It is always best to plan for the worst case when the outcome is not certain.

Warning #28 is out and the official track is shifted along with NOGAPS to the east of Hong Kong, putting them on the back side of the typhoon, which is now looking to make landfall around Shanwei, around 8 or 9 pm local time on Wednesday evening.


HanKFranK
(User)
Mon May 15 2006 07:35 PM
lesser storm

not nearly as alarming today. the track finally shifted east from HK, so the worst conditions won't affect them on that course. mature hurricanes don't usually do that ET intensification thing. with the winds weakening those huge swells that are likely to accompany the storm won't be quite as bad... may generate a surge a little higher than the category suggests at landfall but probably not by much.
the ssts just offshore are good for sustaining a hurricane, though. generally 26-28C. it'll probably maintain hurricane strength on the way in unless the shear profile goes to hell.
mountains in HK, huh? thought i remembered seeing stuff like that on shots of the cityscape... just seems so foreign to an east coast guy like me who is used to a broad coastal plain. probably makes surge fatalities a thing for boneheads without simple self-preservation skills. i can't see the one-party chinese government allowing people to willfully stay for that anyhow. nope, new orleans is not likely over there.
HF 2035z15may


Unregistered User
(Unregistered)
Mon May 15 2006 08:54 PM
Re: Typhoon Chanchu bombing

Yeah. It's actually been quite boring whenever there's a typhoon or super-typhoon. Sometimes seasonal heavy rainstorms do more damages. There's virtually no structure that can't withstand even a tornado in Hong Kong (maybe people paying too much for houses here can at least say they live in a fortress). And to give you an idea, people don't live in sampan or village huts and stuff like that. The airport and subway here are state-of-the-art, won plenty of world architectural awards for their hi-tech design etc. Hong Kong has very sophisticated flood channel system. I think Discovery should do a program on flood prevention system (maybe they have?? I don't know *shrug). It's so modern and well-prepared for stuff like typhoons it's almost sick. Afterall, they have been directly struck by tens (and indirectly hit by hundreds) of typhoons over the past few decades. But yes I do think this one can break a few more trees and damage some of the thousands of Mercedes Benzes and BMWs here this time. And I'm sure people will cry for a day or two lost in punting stocks and trading futures.

Unregistered User
(Unregistered)
Mon May 15 2006 09:15 PM
Re: lesser storm

Quote:

not nearly as alarming today. the track finally shifted east from HK, so the worst conditions won't affect them on that course. mature hurricanes don't usually do that ET intensification thing. with the winds weakening those huge swells that are likely to accompany the storm won't be quite as bad... may generate a surge a little higher than the category suggests at landfall but probably not by much.
the ssts just offshore are good for sustaining a hurricane, though. generally 26-28C. it'll probably maintain hurricane strength on the way in unless the shear profile goes to hell.
mountains in HK, huh? thought i remembered seeing stuff like that on shots of the cityscape... just seems so foreign to an east coast guy like me who is used to a broad coastal plain. probably makes surge fatalities a thing for boneheads without simple self-preservation skills. i can't see the one-party chinese government allowing people to willfully stay for that anyhow. nope, new orleans is not likely over there.
HF 2035z15may




My bet is: nothing will happen, at all. oh, they are so well prepared, and for many decades too. you have to see all those buildings made from steel and concrete there. i can't even describe them.
and the HK government runs the table there, not the chinese government. and they actually have a legislative branch where the opposition party takes command and often upset Beijing on a lot of the issues in the city. You ought to visit HK sometime, Really. It's actually quite a fun place to see, especially when you're walking downtown, where there are all these luxury brand outlets (LV, Gucci etc) and expensive hotels like the Four Season, Ritz Carlton and Intercontinental etc. It feels more British than Chinese, except for all the Chinese faces on the street. And their apartment are so expensive! -- between $500 to $2000 each square foot of space!!! there are an average 2 cell phones to one person... it's a very different world outside the US than what most Americans are led by their media (I used to for them) to believe.


Unregistered User
(Unregistered)
Mon May 15 2006 09:43 PM
Re: Typhoon Chanchu bombing

Any idea what the cituation is right now? I am livin in Shenzhen 35 km's above Hong Kong...

Unregistered User
(Unregistered)
Mon May 15 2006 11:07 PM
Re: Typhoon Chanchu bombing

Wow, there are people from Hong Kong coming here; cool. It peaked last night and then begun to weaken this morning. Right now, it looks better then this morning which means it could be recovering. I'm not sure why but it could strengthen again. I think it will hit Hong Kong or where ever at CAT 3 if it doesn't weaken by the shear or cool waters too much, CAT2 if it does.

Margie
(Senior Storm Chaser)
Tue May 16 2006 01:02 AM
Attachment
Chanchu in cool waters

Was very busy at work today and didn't get too much chance to take a look. Good to wait for the first vis sat image anyway, and, looking at the 1km zoom from an hour ago, Chanchu's organization has improved considerably from this morning. And there continues to be good radial outflow on the west but what appears to be some shear on the NE. With the convection in the center, the eyewall is prominent again but the eye continues to be covered with a thin cirrus shield. I think the winds this morning were stronger than I realized at the time, looking at the lopsided convection in the CDO. Even though CIMSS AODT rates the winds at 90 kts, the current range of 105-110 kts in the JTWC forecast seems believeable looking at the visual and IR. Microwave passes throughout the day have mostly missed.

The core has become much smaller and IR shows that intense convection has almost completely wrapped around the core again. There is quite a bit of convection in the spiral bands outside the core as opposed to yesterday's Cat 4 structure. With the spiral bands the typhoon pretty much takes up the entire basin. JTWC warning #9 has expanded the windfields at landfall accordingly.

The last six hours the upper level winds assoc with the typhoon have curved a dent into the jet to the north, an outflow channel. I think this would be another indication of a strong storm.

The storm is at about 17N. Maybe because it is moving and the SSTs are still good enough to maintain strength, perhaps upwelling was the culprit earlier. Which makes the intensity forecast interesting. JTWC now has it steadily weakening, but if it continues moving at this rate, then SSTs are good almost to the shoreline, I think. So it may be able to maintain 100-110 kts until close to landfall. Heat content falls off drastically north of 17-18N, so either it made a recovery because it hit a spot with some reasonably deep heat content this afternoon, and intensity will slide down again once it moves further north, past this area, or, SSTs at this current speed are enough to maintain the current intensity, without significant heat content.

The model plots have converged and this is the tightest they have ever been so there is good confidence in the track.

* * * * * *
9:30pm update -- Warning #30 is out. The track has been shifted very slightly a little east...essentially in the noise. The initial sustained winds are raised from 110kt to 115kt (reflecting the improved sat signature). Landfall is shown at 80kts which is just shy of Cat 2 intensity, with ET beginning at that time.

Finally a microwave pass did catch part of the center and it's pretty interesting -- I'll attach it (someone please PM me how to add an image into a post!).


Clark
(Meteorologist)
Tue May 16 2006 03:59 AM
Re: Chanchu in cool waters

Classic double eyewall structure, with the inner, tight eyewall surrounded by a moat region, itself surrounded by the outer eyewall. Usually don't see quite that large of separation, but it suggests to me that an eyewall cycle is just getting going. Note that that product is sensitive to ice aloft (among other things), so what you are seeing is the fine-scale convective structure within the storm -- thus the double eyewall structure.

Unregistered User
(Unregistered)
Tue May 16 2006 04:19 AM
Re: Typhoon Chanchu bombing

I found the Discovery TV show people were making references to. It's "Super Typhoon," episode 3 of Discovery Channel's "Perfect Disaster". After watching it, my confidence in Hong Kong's ability to deal with serious typhoons went up even higher. I had no idea we have a huge flood channel system under the city! So that's where all the water goes... I remember watching the rain last year pour for two days straight and not seeing more than a puddle. I was dumbfounded by it (I grew up in technologically primitive towns of the US).

I also was pleased to see the program talk about the comprehensive "Slope Registration" program. Though, it has taken me a while to get used to the notion of numbering all the slopes in the territory (Help, I've tilted my toast at a 45% angle! Does it need to be restablized??)

One issue that the program didn't talk about was the power system. I suddenly remembered we don't have power lines here...so I suppose that's why the lights don't flicker everytime a wind picks up. So much for those fun childhood days of lighting up candles all around the house. But now I am really curious what exactly it would take to have a large power outage in HK?

BTW, thanks for pointing out how our inflated housing prices can be somewhat justified with the sturdy construction. That helps me rationalize my outrageous rent. Frankly, living in HK has made me believe that the benefits of hi-tech urban living far outweigh those of suburbia. Mitigating the effects of natural disasters is just one of many benefits.


Unregistered User
(Unregistered)
Tue May 16 2006 04:49 AM
Re: Chanchu in cool waters

Looks to be it's going through a odd ERC. That is quite large, reminds me of the late Wilma when it was going through Florida. Very large eyewall to come?

Unregistered User
(Unregistered)
Tue May 16 2006 10:52 AM
Re: Chanchu in cool waters

So far it looks pretty calm here in Shekou SZ, small wind (about 12 m/s) and light rain. When I visited local Wal Mart few hours ago people looked like they really don`t care a bit about the storm. Our flat is on 11th floor and there is a small hill (about 350 meters high) right behind us. Just checked the garage area under our house and it looked ok place to stay if it gets nasty with in next 24 hours. Heavy steel tank doors etc. Any good ideas what I should notice if the eye hits near?

Margie
(Senior Storm Chaser)
Tue May 16 2006 11:18 AM
Attachment
Re: Chanchu in cool waters

Yes it is interesting that it is so large...attached a more recent microwave that clearly shows the ERC in progress. Notice the lack of strong convection north of 18N (cooler water). This is hidden pretty well under the CDO.

The timing of this ERC, with such a large outer band of convection, will definitely help to weaken the storm. This structure is interesting considering the transition to ET will start to occur just before landfall (the latest JTWC prog is below). The RMW could be quite large. However the JTWC forecast appears to show the wind radii contracting, so the thought must be that the ERC will start towards completion. But since the strong convection is south of 18N over the next 24 hours significant weakening is likely to occur and it is unclear if this will be able to happen. If it can, this may help the TC maintain more intensity than it would otherwise.

It appears that Hong Kong will start to get some stormy weather from the outer band of convection along the outflow channel before too long, and depending on the track, may remain under that band of convection for some time.

There is very good agreement with both track and intensity models, with all intensity models forecasting weakening to around 90-100 kts in 24 hours.

JTWC warning #31 drops the winds down to 110 kts and weakening at the same rate as in the previous warning.

As the storm approaches tomorrow it can be observed on Hong Kong radar:

http://www.hko.gov.hk/wxinfo/radars/radar.htm

Excepts from the most recent JTWC prog (a lot of good info in this one):

B. TY 02W IS TRACKING POLEWARD ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL STEERING RIDGE CENTERED EAST OF TAIWAN. UPSTREAM MID-LATITUDE TROUGHING IS FORECAST TO AMPLIFY SLIGHTLY AS A SERIES OF SMALLER PERTURBATIONS TRACK OVER THE NORTHERN BAY OF BENGAL AND NORTHERN INDOCHINA. ADDITIONALLY, A WESTWARD EXTENSION OF THE STEERING RIDGE SHOULD REMAIN IN PLACE TO THE NORTHEAST OF TY 02W THROUGH TAU 24. THE RESULTING FLOW WILL INDUCE A NORTHWARD TRACK INITIALLY, FOLLOWED BY A SHIFT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST AFTER TAU 24 AS THE TROUGH MOVES EASTWARD AND RIDGING EAST OF TY 02W WEAKENS. THE STORM WILL BECOME EMBEDDED WITHIN THE MIDLATITUDE WESTERLIES BY TAU 36 AND BEGIN EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION (XT) WHILE APPROACHING THE COAST OF SOUTHERN CHINA. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO MAKE LANDFALL EAST OF HONG KONG AROUND TAU 36 AND COMPLETE XT BY TAU 72. WITH THE EXCEPTION OF AN EASTERN (COAMPS) AND WESTERN (TCLAPS) OUTLIER, THE REMAINING DYNAMIC AIDS CONSISTING OF NOGAPS, GFDN, AFWA MM5, NCEP GFS, JGSM, JTYM, EGGR, AND WBAR ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS SCENARIO.

C. ALTHOUGH TY 02W REMAINS OVER FAVORABLE SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND MAINTAINS GOOD ANTICYCLONIC OUTFLOW, THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AS MORE STABLE LOW LEVEL AIR IS FUNNELED THROUGH THE TAIWAN STRAIT AND INTO THE NORTHERN SOUTH CHINA SEA. THE STORM WILL WEAKEN RAPIDLY AFTER TAU 24 AS IT TRAVERSES LOWER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES, INTERACTS WITH LAND, AND UNDERGOES XT.

D. CURRENT WIND RADII ARE BASED ON A 152234Z QUIKSCAT PASS. FORECAST WIND RADII ARE BASED UPON CLIMATOLOGY FOR AN AVERGE- TO LARGE-SIZED SYSTEM, WITH SOME MODIFICATION FOR XT AT TAU 36.


Margie
(Senior Storm Chaser)
Tue May 16 2006 02:05 PM
Attachment
Re: Chanchu in cool waters

The outer eyewall has consolidated and is contracting rapidly (SSMIS pass attached). There is virtually no convection left besides the two concentric eyewalls...rather unusual.

The small eyewall is still intact and what is further has finally cleared out on IR.


Margie
(Senior Storm Chaser)
Tue May 16 2006 02:17 PM
Attachment
Re: Chanchu in cool waters

Quikscat ascending pass from within the past half hour attached. If I am reading this correctly, there are still winds of 110 kts in the center (I counted several), and 100 kt winds in the outer eyewall.

Margie
(Senior Storm Chaser)
Tue May 16 2006 02:18 PM
Attachment
Re: Chanchu in cool waters

Ditto the descending pass -- very impressive; the winds are uniformly making it down to the surface.

JTWC warning #32 has increased the sustained windspeed at landfall from 80kts to 85kts, and moved the landfall point east, it appears about 50nm. Current winds at 105 kts (I must have read the quikscat wrong). The text notes: "A 161035Z AMSU/B IMAGE REVEALS A SMALL, COMPACT EYE SURROUNDED BY A WEAKENING OUTER EYEWALL."

And the prog notes:

ANIMATED SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS A SIGNIFICANT DECREASE IN CONVECTION IN THE NORTHERN QUARDRANTS OF TY 02W OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS. DESPITE FAVORABLE SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES, STABLE AIR FUNNELED THROUGH THE TAIWAN STRAIT HAS ALREADY STARTED TO WEAKEN TY 02W.


Margie
(Senior Storm Chaser)
Tue May 16 2006 09:30 PM
Attachment
Re: Chanchu in cool waters

Convection has continued to deteriorate. Two microwave passes (attached) show the concentric eyewalls, but the inner eyewall continues to be very well defined, and has cleared out, and this appears to be a steady state, rather than a typical ERC, with very slow overall weakening. JTWC warning #33 maintains the current intensity of 105 kts, and the landfall intensity, and moves the track further east again.

A comment from the warning text is interesting in the sense that it refers to a 'band of convection' rather than an outer eyewall: "A 161825Z TRMM IMAGE REVEALS AN EROSION OF THE NORTHWEST REGION OF THE OUTERMOST BAND OF CONVECTION."

So maybe it had the look of an ERC, but was not considered an ERC, as the inner eyewall never deteriorated. Maybe the moat was simply what was left between the center of convection and the previous spiral bands, that just happened to pull into a second convective ring?


Unregistered User
(Unregistered)
Wed May 17 2006 05:18 PM
Chanchu update

Officially: Chanchu has left HK without much incident except a couple of sign board damaged outside a gew shops. No one was injured.
Unofficially: Office workers were disappointed their working day was not called off, because the typhoon was not strong enough for the government to issue a level 3 (signal number 8) warning (on a four level scale - 1, 3 8 and 10). Alas!


Unregistered User
(Unregistered)
Wed May 17 2006 05:21 PM
Re: Chanchu update

For HK's tropical cyclone/storm wanring system: http://www.hko.gov.hk/informtc/tcsignal.htm

Margie
(Senior Storm Chaser)
Fri May 19 2006 03:22 AM
Re: Chanchu update

Quote:

Officially: Chanchu has left HK without much incident except a couple of sign board damaged outside a gew shops. No one was injured.
Unofficially: Office workers were disappointed their working day was not called off, because the typhoon was not strong enough for the government to issue a level 3 (signal number 8) warning (on a four level scale - 1, 3 8 and 10). Alas!




Update on Chanchu:

Typhoon Chanchu kills 21 in China

By Christopher Bodeen in Shanghai (China) | Friday, 19 May , 2006, 08:29

A powerful typhoon pummelled southern China on Thursday, killing at least 21 people and leaving 27 Vietnamese fishermen missing after their boats sank in Chinese waters.

Chanchu, which was downgraded to a tropical storm, has killed more than 60 people in Asia, including 37 last weekend in the Philippines, where it destroyed thousands of homes.

China's official Xinhua News Agency said on Friday that 13 people died from flooding and landslides in the southeastern province of Fujian. Another eight perished in neighbouring Guangdong province.

By early Friday the dramatically weakened storm has moved into the East China Sea.

The storm hit the coast of China early on Thursday, flooding scores of homes and forcing the evacuation of more than 1 million people before weakening to a severe tropical storm.

The missing Vietnamese fishermen were on three boats that sank in Chinese waters, Vietnamese officials said on Thursday. Six other boats with 67 fishermen were able to reach an island and report the sinking of the other vessels. Vietnam asked Chinese authorities to help search for the missing.

Taiwan reported the deaths of two women swept away by floods in the southern region of Pingtung on Wednesday.

In southern Japan, high waves swept away three 17-year-old male students swimming off Hateruma island in the Okinawa chain, leaving one dead and another missing, coast guard spokesman Shoji Kawabata said. The third was rescued.

China said it had moved more than 1 million people to safety in Guangdong and Fujian provinces. The storm bypassed the financial centre of Hong Kong on the Guangdong coast.

Thousands of people evacuated from fishing boats and low-lying areas were staying with relatives, in tents, or in schools and government warehouses, said Zhang, an official of the Chaozhou city government in Guangdong.

Nearly 1,00,000 ships were ordered to return to harbour, Xinhua said.

T C Lee, an official with the Hong Kong Observatory, said Chanchu was the "most intense" typhoon to strike in the South China Sea in May, an early month in the annual cyclone season.

However, the early arrival of the year's first typhoon does not necessarily portend an unusually active storm season, Lee said by telephone.



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