The NHC/CPHC began issuing advisories for Tropical Storm Lowell on Thursday. Still located 1400 miles SE of Hilo, there will be a lot of time to watch this one, but there is at least a possibility the Hawaiian Islands, parts of which are still recovering from Lala, will have another storm to contend with. The forecast track shows the storm moving steadily west and strengthening next week. The forecast discussion notes that the uncertainty after five days is high. While the models seem to agree on a westward track before turning north, there is a large spread on how far west the system will get before making that turn — the $64,000 question for Hawai’i.

As was amply demonstrated by Lala (has a place ever been affected by two ‘L’ storms in the same year?!?!) given the combination of terrain, isolation, infrastructure issues, and general lack of experience, even a minimal hurricane passing near the Hawaiian Islands can cause widespread disruption and damage. Residents and visitors alike would be well advised to check in on the outlook for Lowell into next week as it progresses across the Pacific.