cieldumort
(Moderator)
Thu Oct 08 2026 03:13 AM
Re: Hurricane Rachel Potential SoCal and Desert SW

Several GFS ensemble members are also warm to the idea of reintensification upon approach to the coast of SoCal and/or NW Baja. Waters are anomalously warm around there, but not outright tropical cyclone favorable. Likely some upper-air dynamics going on at this time in these runs as well.

Anything verifying close to the more aggressive runs would likely necessitate Watches and/or Warnings. The last and only time NHC has ever issued a Tropical Storm Watch (and later upgraded to Warning) for any portion of southern California was in August 2023 with Hilary.






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