That latest advisory package sure was a marked change from the previous two -- instead of calling for 48hr of strengthening, calling for immediate weakening. But, you're absolutely right - though Isabel may have been an exception, storms rarely maintain this sort of intensity for very long.

The track has also changed singificantly, not good news for Japan. Previously, the storm was expected to take a hard turn to the right later in the forecast period, taking it out to sea between Japan and Iwo Jima. Now, that turn to the right isn't expected, placing the storm in direct aim of Tokyo. That's probably partially an artifact of not remaining so strong through the forecast period, among other things.

Still one to follow for the next 5 days...