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TROPICAL STORM BEATRIZ DISCUSSION NUMBER 4 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 8 AM PDT WED JUN 22 2005 IN CONTRAST TO THE TWO DISTINCT AREAS OF CONVECTION THAT WERE PRESENT OVERNIGHT...A SINGLE DEEP CONVECTIVE BAND NOW SEEMS TO BE CONSOLIDATING IN THE NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE OF THE LARGE CIRCULATION...AND DVORAK CLASSIFICATIONS ARE A CONSENSUS 2.5. THE SYSTEM IS THEREFORE UPGRADED TO A TROPICAL STORM. SHIP 9VVN AT 12Z REPORTED 30 KT JUST SOUTHEAST OF THE ESTIMATED CENTER LOCATION AND OUTSIDE OF THE DEEP CONVECTION...SO IT IS CONCEIVABLE THE WINDS ARE SLIGHTLY STRONGER THAN THE ADVISORY INTENSITY OF 35 KT BENEATH THE CONVECTION. HOWEVER...WE WILL WAIT TO INCREASE THE INTENSITY UNTIL WE HAVE A LITTLE MORE CONFIDENCE IN THE CENTER LOCATION. INITIAL MOTION REMAINS SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN AND ESTIMATED AT 285/11...WHICH IS REASONABLY CONSISTENT WITH A SERIES OF MICROWAVE OVERPASSES AND THE CLOUD PATTERN IN GOES IMAGERY. THE ADVISORY POSITION IS SLIGHTLY BEHIND THE PACE OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST TRACK...BUT THE FORECAST OTHERWISE REMAINS ESSENTIALLY UNCHANGED. BEATRIZ SHOULD CONTINUE ON A WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TRACK...ACCOMPANIED BY GRADUAL INTENSIFICATION IN A MODERATE SHEAR ENVIRONMENT...UNTIL REACHING AN AREA OF WEAKER STEERING CURRENTS AND COOLER WATERS IN ABOUT TWO DAYS. WEAKENING AND A TURN TOWARD THE WEST IN THE LOW LEVEL FLOW IS EXPECTED THEREAFTER. THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS ONLY SLIGHTLY GREATER THAN THE SHIPS GUIDANCE. FORECASTER KNABB/FRANKLIN FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 22/1500Z 14.8N 105.6W 35 KT 12HR VT 23/0000Z 15.2N 107.3W 45 KT 24HR VT 23/1200Z 15.8N 109.4W 50 KT 36HR VT 24/0000Z 16.3N 111.3W 55 KT 48HR VT 24/1200Z 16.7N 112.9W 55 KT 72HR VT 25/1200Z 17.0N 115.5W 40 KT 96HR VT 26/1200Z 17.0N 118.0W 30 KT 120HR VT 27/1200Z 17.0N 120.0W 20 KT...DISSIPATING Officially Beatriz at 11 AM EDT but wont be of long duration as cooler and dry air awaits her to it's west. |