I've been watching since Friday morning. Yeah she really bombed as soon as the convection was able to wrap all the way around. Last night around 7ish, 8ish I was wondering why still at 125kts, both JTWC and the NRL sat images. I guess JTWC doesn't put out bulletins as often as TWC? Last night she was clearly headed annular, as can be seen from this morning's (for us) IR -- the reduction in convection outside of the ring, reduction of the diurnal max of the cirrus outflow bands, the buzzsaw look.

Wondering if the outflow is what is making the difference (such a big factor with Kat and Rita). Convection concentrated so close to the center that the portion of the CDO that is over land does not seem to be much of a factor --maybe just the tiniest bit, looking at the 1042Z microwave...the area of strong convection completely round now, not oval like 8 hours earlier, but just a hint maybe of the two main spiral bands starting to come back on the edges of the convection (the IR however looks close to a perfect plate shape) Has she maxed out in intensity until passing the peninsula and getting more completely back over the water? Isn't it close to the diurnal max there now, around 3 or 4 am.

Here's a great link to Gove radar...the presentation of the eye on radar has not changed since last evening, but there does appear to be more intense convection this morning than 12 hours ago, as would be expected.

http://mirror.bom.gov.au/products/IDR093.loop.shtml