Margie
(Senior Storm Chaser)
Thu Apr 27 2006 11:07 PM
Re: Is Mala A Cyclone?

It looks like Mala is really coming together very quickly. It looks from the vis, IR, and water vapor images that she could be bombing. The latest microwave image showed a complete ring of convection around the eye but still some spiral bands. On the visual the CDO has that flat white dappled look. The eye seems wider and more well-formed on the visual than the IR.

The CIMSS AODT estimate seems on the low side (4.8 with Vmax of 85kts).

I still don't understand the JTWC intensity forecast with #8. With the next warning will they have to go back up on the intensity forecast to close to what they had with #7?

Trying to figure out what they're seeing to limit intensity increase -- dry air from the NW?


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