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Invest just went up on the NRL web site. This was from the last discussion (1605Z). They must have liked what they see now. The last quikscat I looked at some hours ago it did look more symmetric. LOW NEAR 9N99W... LARGE CONVECTIVE BLOW-UP BEGAN AROUND 00Z LAST NIGHT AND WAS FOCUSED MAINLY AROUND THE S/SE PERIPHERY OF THE CENTER OF CIRCULATION. THIS ACTIVITY CREATED A NEARLY CIRCULAR 180 NM WIDE EXPANDING CIRRUS SHIELD BUT MORE RECENTLY THE CONVECTION HAS BROKEN UP INTO SEVERAL CLUSTERS ALIGNED ALONG THE ITCZ AXIS AND S OF THE CENTER. A 1252Z QUIKSCAT PASS INDICATES THAT THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER IS STILL SOMEWHAT ELONGATED SINCE IT HAS NOT YET DETACHED FROM THE ITCZ...BUT IT IS BECOMING INCREASINGLY MORE CIRCULAR AND COMPACT. THE DEEP CONVECTION HAS NOT DIED OFF LIKE IT DID THIS TIME YESTERDAY SO IF THIS TREND CONTINUES THEN TROPICAL CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT WOULD BE MORE LIKELY IN THE NEXT FEW DAYS. SEE ITCZ FOR RELATED CONVECTION. |