hadn't looked at chanchu in about a day. for some reason i keep thinking the forecast track will shift east and drop the threat to the hong kong area. as is, pretty bad situation. lots of real estate to destroy there, and a huge population at risk. on the bright side, by the time the hurricane gets there... if the atlantic rules about hurricanes tending to peak and have their cores flatten thereafter, the winds may not be quite as furious as they're going to be for the next day or two. i don't know the topography of the area that well but hong kong is really built up, so it shouldn't be a problem getting people up above whatever surge chanchu might drive in.
hope for the best for the chinese about to get this typhoon visitation.
HF 0401z15may