(Senior Storm Chaser)
Tue May 16 2006 09:30 PM
Re: Chanchu in cool waters

Convection has continued to deteriorate. Two microwave passes (attached) show the concentric eyewalls, but the inner eyewall continues to be very well defined, and has cleared out, and this appears to be a steady state, rather than a typical ERC, with very slow overall weakening. JTWC warning #33 maintains the current intensity of 105 kts, and the landfall intensity, and moves the track further east again.

A comment from the warning text is interesting in the sense that it refers to a 'band of convection' rather than an outer eyewall: "A 161825Z TRMM IMAGE REVEALS AN EROSION OF THE NORTHWEST REGION OF THE OUTERMOST BAND OF CONVECTION."

So maybe it had the look of an ERC, but was not considered an ERC, as the inner eyewall never deteriorated. Maybe the moat was simply what was left between the center of convection and the previous spiral bands, that just happened to pull into a second convective ring?

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