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NRL shows it at 11N 94W. From the midmorning TWO: A DISORGANIZED AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER...ASSOCIATED WITH A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE...HAS DEVELOPED A COUPLE HUNDRED MILES SOUTH OF THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC. SOME GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS POSSIBLE AS IT MOVES SLOWLY TOWARD THE NORTHWEST DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. And from the morning eastpac TWD: ...TROPICAL WAVES... A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 93W/94W TO THE S OF 14N AND HAS MOVED W AT 5-10 KT OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. THE WAVE IS EMBEDDED WITHIN A BROAD AREA OF CYCLONIC TURNING IN THE LOW LEVELS WITH THE 1218 UTC QUIKSCAT PASS INDICATING TWO POSSIBLE SURFACE CIRCULATIONS NEAR 11N98W AND 11N93W. VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY CONFIRMS THE EXISTENCE OF BOTH CENTERS. THE CENTER NEAR 11N98W IS ANALYZED AS A SURFACE LOW PRES 1007 MB. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS SLOWLY ORGANIZING WITHIN THIS BROAD AREA OF CYCLONIC TURNING AND ALSO ALONG THE ITCZ BETWEEN 92W AND 101W. I am so not good at trying to see these developing TC. Did bring up the sat loop, but even having it stare me right in the face, could not pick it up. It must be nudged into a tiny area of low shear. |