Fri May 26 2006 12:48 AM
Re: 91E consolidating

Agree wholeheartedly with HF's assessment of this developing disturbance. It's got some semblance of an outflow jet to the north and northeast, but this feature is also leading to some weak-moderate shear over the storm. Nothing too big, however. The SSTs that it is near are really warm -- 30C -- but the waters along the coastline are a touch shallow. Nothing like what Adrian encountered last year, however. Some odd runs of the GFS wanted to take this toward the Isthmus of Tehuantepec; it could happen, but I don't think it's the most likely scenario. Further west is more likely. Figure it's got a fair shot at some intensification, outside shot at minimal hurricane intensity.

Just my personal view...and not my forecast

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