Sat May 27 2006 06:22 AM
poking along

this is one of those systems that i'd call a depression, but nhc makes that call and not me. it essentially meets the official definition, as is. the only fuzzy point would be 'organized convection'. it looks organized to a depression level to me.
the official guess is that shear will weaken on it some. ssts ahead in its forecast movement region are above normal and more or less in the upper 80s. once the developmental feedback gets going on this sucker it may really get going... up to minimal hurricane strength like clark is saying. proximity to the coast and increased deep layer steering should start it moving nnw to n. not much threat of an atlantic crossover as any remnant circulation blown over the mountains would be in a stronger shear environment. seeing as we don't have a storm to track yet (officially) this is thinking too far ahead.
the pesky model-predicted atlantic system in the western caribbean from a few days ago isn't there in the newest runs. steering in the region ought to become more southerly later next week, and anything jammed up down there could come up. gfs has a baroclinic type feature from a tropical energy surge ahead of the deep trough progged to dig into the east by next weekend, so regardless the pattern could still spit something up from down there. more likely, though, that action will remain in the pacific into early june.
minor note that a deep layer cutoff low should be stuck out in the bermuda triangle region during next week, but models aren't showing it hybridizing or anything.
synoptic pattern and configuration of atmospheric features right now is a little like la nina, maybe as a residual effect of the la nina conditions that existed in the pacific over the winter. they do not usually favor early season atlantic activity. however, the atmosphere should adjust back to an enso neutral configuration as the la nina failed to launch. maybe something, unfortunately, like 2004-2005.
HF 0722z27may

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