Sat May 27 2006 10:22 PM

aletta as entered a world that isn't fully ready to let it thrive. just like late yesterday the center of the storm has swirled out west of the main convective area, while the general motion of the storm has been hopscotching northeastward over the last day or two. with that jet still northwest of the storm i doubt this center will survive as is, and a new one will likely reform just as it already has twice, underneath the cdo. the current forecast philosophy looks about right, though i do think it will wander inland and die, rather than brush the coast and take off westward when the upper sw flow lets go and the ridging to the north strengthens. i don't think aletta will get stronger than about 50mph.
now, if the upper jet relaxes sooner, it'll probably start westward early and miss the coast. in that case it could get a little stronger.
there's a wave coming across panama/costa rica on the back side of aletta. if it rides up a little on the itcz there's a chance it will start festering behind the lead storm. models not too excited over this prospect as of now.
don't see the atlantic doing much for the next week or two.
HF 2322z27may

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