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One day later, from the TWD and TWO, respectively: ...SPECIAL FEATURE... A 1006 MB LOW IS CENTERED ABOUT 450 NM SW OF ACAPULCO MEXICO NEAR 10N104W WITH ONLY A SLIGHT NW DRIFT. RECENT VISIBLE IMAGERY SUGGESTS THAT THE LOW IS EMBEDDED WITHIN AN ELONGATED TROUGH THAT EXTENDS NE TOWARDS ACAPULCO...AND THIS IS ALSO CONFIRMED BY A 1300 UTC QUIKSCAT PASS. AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE IS CENTERED OVER THIS AREA NEAR 15N102W AND DIVERGENCE ALOFT IS INITIATING A CLUSTER OF CONVECTION W OF THE SURFACE LOW AS WELL AS E OF THE TROUGH. NUMEROUS MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION DEVELOPING FROM 11N-13N BETWEEN 103W-105W. SCATTERED MODERATE FROM 9N 16N BETWEEN 95W-101W. THE OVERALL CIRCULATION OF THE SYSTEM IS STILL TOO ELONGATED...BUT TROPICAL CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT STILL APPEARS POSSIBLE WITHIN THE NEXT 24-36 HRS. A LARGE AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER CENTERED A LITTLE MORE THAN 300 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF ACAPULCO MEXICO HAS NOT BECOME ANY BETTER ORGANIZED THIS MORNING. HOWEVER...ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR TO BE FAVORABLE FOR A TROPICAL DEPRESSION TO FORM DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO AS THE SYSTEM DRIFTS GENERALLY NORTHWARD. |