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Bud did reorganize last night as a compact hurricane. This morning's appearance is different from 12 hours ago, but the intensity appears to be about the same. Convection continued to build around the center overnight and appears this morning as a tight spiral around the center. The eye is obscured by the CDO and a small burst of convection on the eastern side right now, but the first daylight pass did show the location clearly (at about 15.7N 116.2W). It is edging a little further north of the previous track. The next advisory should be out shortly. From the discussion by Mainelli and Pasch: INFRARED IMAGERY OVER THE LAST COUPLE OF HOURS HAS REVEALED AN OBSCURED EYE PATTERN WITH THE HURRICANE. DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE 90 KT AND 77 KT FROM TAFB AND SAB RESPECTIVELY. THIS...ALONG WITH THE REDEVELOPED EYE PATTERN...JUSTIFIES RETAINING THE INITIAL INTENSITY AT 85 KT. IF THE EYE BECOMES MORE DISTINCT AND PERSISTENT THE INTENSITY WOULD BE BUMPED UP SLIGHTLY THIS AFTERNOON. |