While the Atlantic has been pretty dead lately, things are ramping up in the Pacific, with a tropical storm and a depression in the east pac, a healthy looking invest (that has a Tropical Cyclone Formation Alert issued for it) in the central Pacific, and a tropical storm in the west pac. In the east pac, T.S. Norman and TD 16-E are expected to stay weak and head northeast in the direction of Baja California the next few days. In the west pac, T.S. Soulik is well east of the Marianas heading WNW. The JTWC forecast intensifies it to a 95 knot typhoon and heads it in the general direction of Okinawa by 120 hrs.

The most interesting system though may turn out to be Invest 97C, currently at about 11/163. Several models as well as CPC discussions have been hinting for a few days now about possible tropical activity around Hawaii. The GFDL is very aggresive with this system and develops a significant hurricane, and turns it quickly north then northeast, making a beeline toward the Hawaiian islands by 18Z Oct. 14. The GFS is less enthusiastic intensity-wise but still heads it in the direction of Hawaii.

Several promising system have fizzled in this area the last couple months, so nothing to get too excited about yet, but certainly worth watching.