"TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
400 PM PDT FRI OCT 20 2006

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..

THE AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER CENTERED ABOUT 230 MILES SOUTH OF
MANZANILLO MEXICO REMAINS WELL-ORGANIZED AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION
COULD FORM AT ANY TIME. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO MOVE TOWARD THE
WEST-NORTHWEST AT ABOUT 10 MPH FOR THE NEXT DAY OR SO."

As of this entry (10/20/06 4:30 PM PST) FSU's MM5, GFDL & the NAM-WRF all want to develop this 92e into a respectable tropical cyclone, and take it into or just south of the southern tip of Baja. That is some impressive agreement this far in advance among three of the most respectable models.