vpbob21
(Weather Guru)
Tue Oct 31 2006 10:28 AM
Re: Typhoon Cimaron poised to slam northern Luzon

There has been a huge change in the forecast track of Cimaron. Earlier forecasts had the system getting under a ridge and moving west or even southwest and making landfall in Vietnam. Latest JTWC forecast has the storm recurving north and making landfall in China just west of Hong Kong in about 72 hours. Fortunately it is only expected to be a low end cat 1 storm when it gets there.

EDIT 8:30 PM - oops! another shift - newest JTWC forecast has Cimaron approaching within about 100 mi. of Hong Kong, then looping back west and southwest, staying just offshore. The models are really struggling with this one.


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