As I suspected Durian rapidly intensified overnight and is now a 135 kt. supertyphoon. The track has shifted considerably to the south and it should make landfall sometime this evening probably over Cantanduanes province. It could pass very close to Manila in about 36-48 hours. How strong it will be by then will depend on how the storm is able to pick its way through the islands, but the official JTWC forecast is for around 95 kts. as it passes the city. The storm is expected to slow to a speed of about 5-6 kts. so flash flooding is a major concern.
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/mtsat/wpac/loop-avn.html
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