A quick update on Tropical Storm Flossie, for those following along ...

It seems that after holding steady for most of the day on Thursday, Flossie is strengthening this early morning during the convective maximum cycle, as had been expected.

A large convective blowup, primarily in the eastern semicircle is the likely culprit for Flossie now being maxed out in the tropical storm category, with it's sustained winds now estimated by NRL at 60 Kts.

And the 'formative' eye, so apparent on passive microwave imaging satellites for most of the day has become even better defined at microwave wavelengths and is now being reflected quite well on animated IR imagery too.

http://weather.hawaii.edu/satellite/sata...amp;overlay=off

Flossie is, or will soon be, in my opinion, a Hurricane. The eye is now there, and will be visible with the coming daylight hours (local basin time) on the visible satellites, as well. And it appears that the overall circulation envelope is increasing, which would perhaps imply an increase in the radius of tropical storm force winds.

Some discussion in an earlier NHC advisory/discussion seemed to think that increasing easterly shear would be encroaching upon Flossies' circulation and that the global models were not picking up on this fact, and strengthening Flossie to hurricane too optimistically, and that the intensity forecast was accordingly being toned down a bit.

But more recent discussions seem to downplay that, and there isn't any hint of detrimental easterly shear overtaking the cyclone as I write at this hour. It seems that westerly shear might be a factor, however, in the coming days, as well as slightly cooler SST's in it's forecasted path.

It should be interesting to see how Flossie does in the coming convective minimum during the daylight hours, whether it will quash the inner core convection, or whether Flossie will continue it's current convective spin-up and attain bona-fide hurricane stature. It certainly *looks* like a hurricane already.

http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tc-bin/tc_hom...s/microvap/dmsp

Thankfully, it's expected to weaken to near minimal tropical storm strength while passing safely south of the Big Island. But a lot of variables will come into play and the exact thermodynamic environment Flossie finds herself in in a few days could depart for it's currently forecasted track/intensity, as the numerical models are widely divergent with regard to how all this will pan out as Flossie approaches the Hawaiian Islands.

All this will be watched closely by Hawaii residents and the CPHC (Central Pacific Hurricane Center) will assume forecast responsibilities, once Flossie crosses 140W and moves into the Central Pacific basin.

Please feel free to join in the posting if you have anything at all to add or thoughts you'd like to share.

More to come in the coming days, obviously. Stay tuned for this ride! - Stormin' Norman