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Flossie continues to defy all intensity predictions tonight ... just about as soon as I posted that the storm had probably peaked Flossie put on another burst of intensification. T numbers climbed to 6.5 supporting a 127 kt. storm, and the CPHC set the intensity at a (by their admission) conservative 120 kts. Judging by the impressive satellite presentation, I would agree the intensity estimate is conservative. Certainly the pressure estimate of 946 mb seems a little high - I would have to suspect if a plane was in there they might find something more like low 930's. One bit of good news - after moving WNW much of today the storm (at least to my untrained eye) seems to have resumed more of a westward course (though it could be just a wobble). Hopefully the track will be a little farther south than forecast, but I imagine there will still be some pretty high surf hitting the S and E facing beaches over the next 2-4 days. |