Major Typhoon Hagupit - Hong Kong May Get Northern Eyewall (Original Post Title)

Yep. It's the Pits.

Hagupit, that is. Just what we need. Another major cyclone bearing down on a densely populated area.

Now a Major Typhoon, Hagupit is on a track which will bring it just south of Hong Kong and it's harbor in a few hours, placing the thriving metropolis in the right-front quadrant, the infamous "bad side" of the storm.

And should the cyclone veer, even slightly, to the right from it's projected path, it would bring the Northern Eyewall squarely over the city itself.

Here's a somewhat recent ( 22Z 9/22/08) microwave image of Hagupit's final approach to landfall.

It's eyewall (at the time of image) is a little open to the SE and it even appears to perhaps be undergoing an eyewall replacement cycle. But of little consequence. At it's current 105 knots, it will already surely push a storm surge into Hong Kong Harbor and surrounding areas.

I'm not too familiar with the geography of the area, but a session with Google Earth reveals many bays and inlets, similar to the bayous of the US Gulf Coast, so a major cyclone landfalling in this area is sure to generate a huge storm surge and resultant coastal and inland flooding over a wide area.

And judging from what I can gather from the various visible, IR and microwave satellite imagery (radar imagery still proving elusive) it seems that, if the typhoon veers ever so slightly to the right, the city of Hong Kong may be in the Northern Eyewall in a few hours.

Hence, in the following bulletin, the Hong Kong Observatory's "consideration" of a "No. 8 Storm Signal" for Hong Kong between 4pm and 8pm, local time, the time of Hagupit's closest point of approach, should the eyewall actually transit the metropolis.

Here is the latest 'Advisory' from the Hong Kong Observatory, their equivalent to the NHC, which tracks the cyclones and issues the advisories and recommended public actions.

========================================

Issue Time (HKT): 13:45 23/Sep/2008
Tropical Cyclone Bulletin
Here is the latest Tropical Cyclone Bulletin issued by the
Hong Kong Observatory.
The Strong Wind Signal, No. 3 is in force.

This means that winds with mean speeds of 41 to 62
kilometres per hour are expected.

At 2 p.m., Typhoon Hagupit was estimated to be about 290
kilometres southeast of Hong Kong (near 20.3 degrees north
115.9 degrees east) and is forecast to move west or
west-northwest at about 28 kilometres per hour heading
towards the south China coast.

****************************************************
According to Hagupit's present track, the Observatory will
consider the need for the No.8 Gale or Storm Signal between
4 p.m. and 8 p.m. today.

****************************************************

Gales are affecting high grounds in Hong Kong. In the past
hour, the maximum sustained wind speeds recorded at Cheung
Chau and Waglan Island were 44 and 54 kilometres per hour
respectively.

(Precautionary Announcements with No. 3 Signal)

1. You are advised not to delay in taking all precautions
to protect your home or property. Make sure now that all
loose objects are secure. Porch furniture, flower pots and
other objects likely to be blown away should be taken
indoors. Check again and make sure all windows and doors
can be securely locked.

2. Storm water drains should be cleared of leaves and
rubbish, this applies particularly to dwellers in low-lying
areas.

3. Since seas are rough and there are swells , you are
advised to stay away from the shoreline and not to engage
in water sports.

4. People should avoid walking or working in areas exposed
to gales and squalls. Drivers using highways and flyovers
should be alert to violent gusts.

5. Engineers, architects and contractors are again reminded
that all scaffoldings, hoardings and temporary buildings
should be secured.

6. Small craft owners should now complete arrangements for
the safety of their boats.

7. Listen to your radio, watch your TV or browse the Hong
Kong Observatory's web site for information on the tropical
cyclone.

====================================

I'll be following Hagupit through landfall and will post updates every few hours.

Awaiting more recent microwave imagery and still working on a reliable radar link.

As always, you're welcome to chime in if you have anything you'd like to share or questions about Typhoon Hagupit or it's effects on Hong Kong.