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Satellite imagery and NHC E Pac discussions are giving a heads up on a developing Tropical Wave in the Eastern Pacific. TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 1005 UTC SAT MAY 30 2009 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0900 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 100W FROM 03N TO 14N MOVING W 10-15 KT. THE WAVE STRUCTURE HAS IMPROVED SLIGHTLY OVER THE PAST DAY AS MID-LEVEL CYCLONIC TURNING HAS BECOME MORE PRONOUNCED ON SHORTWAVE IR IMAGERY. CONVECTION HAS ALSO INCREASED AND IS LESS LINEAR IN NATURE...MAINLY WITHIN 360 NM E OF THE ANALYZED AXIS. THE WAVE REMAINS VERY BROAD WITH CLOUD MOTIONS SUGGESTING TWO VORTICITY MAXIMUMS E AND W OF THE AXIS...NEAR 08N92W AND 08N103W. MANY OF THE GLOBAL MODELS SHOW SOME DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS IT MOVES W-NW.... AN UPPER RIDGE OVER THE TROPICAL EPAC...CENTERED S OF THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...IS PROVIDING A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY NEAR THE TROPICAL WAVE DISCUSSED ABOVE. THIS HIGH AND LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE ENHANCED BY NOCTURNAL DRAINAGE FLOW OVER S MEXICO IS RESULTING IN MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION OVER THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC AND OFF THE COASTS OF COSTA RICA AND NICARAGUA. http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATWDEP+shtml/300918.shtml? |