Fri Jun 12 2009 07:39 PM
TC Formation? Not!

Nope. It just ain't gonna' happen.

Just as I had surmised, the "broad area of low pressure" and attendant (rather disorganized) thunderstorms never quite got it's act together, due, presumably, to the less-than-favorable SST's in it's path.

For a day or two, it had a shot at it. But a glance at the above SST chart reveals that it was *briefly* over a 'pocket' of warmer SST's with higher oceanic heat content, but essentially corralled by appreciably cooler waters.

But the combination of the disorganized convective activity and, especially, the presence of several LLC's in addition to the main LCC precluded the possibility of this broad low from consolidating sufficiently while it was still over the 'hot pocket'.

I was surprised, in fact, that the JTWC / NRL had *reissued* the Tropical Cyclone Formation Alert, and that the NHC had upped their assessment to Red, greater than 50% probability of genesis, based on the 'new' LLC that had reformed to the NE of the previous LLC, despite rather cool-ish SST and increasingly hostile environment.

All agencies, NHC / NWS TPC / JTWC / NRL, have since dropped the invest as no longer plausible and we now return you to your regular programming. Beautiful tradewind weather this weekend for Hawaii, and hopefully for Florida, too!

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