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Someone speculated earlier on the path on the moisture from Jimena...here's the afternoon HPC discussion on it....wide divergence in the models: AS HURRICANE JIMENA MOVES UP THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA...A MONSOON SURGE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE UP THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA/SEA OF CORTEZ TO ITS EAST...ENHANCING RAINFALL TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE SYSTEM ALONG THE COAST OF WESTERN MAINLAND MEXICO BEFORE MOVING INTO ARIZONA THURSDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. THE ECMWF HAS TRENDED SERIOUSLY TO THE RIGHT WITH ITS TRACK OVER ITS PAST DAY OF RUNS...NOW TAKING ITS MID-LEVEL REMNANT INTO SOUTHERN TEXAS EARLY NEXT WEEK RATHER THAN WEST ALONG 20N INTO THE OPEN PACIFIC. THE NORTHEAST TREND IN THE NHC GUIDANCE LED TO A ONE DAY ACCELERATION OF THE ANTICIPATED ARRIVAL OF THIS MOISTURE FROM THIS TIME YESTERDAY. THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD FIRE EACH AFTERNOON AND EVENING...WITH THE MOISTURE FEED EXPECTED TO BE DIRECTED INTO THE CENTRAL ROCKIES BY THIS WEEKEND. AREAL AVERAGE AMOUNTS OF 0.50 INCH OR MORE PER DAY OVER AND DOWNWIND OF TOPOGRAPHY IN ARIZONA CAN BE EXPECTED FROM THURSDAY INTO THIS WEEKEND...WITH LESSER AMOUNTS DOWNSTREAM ALONG THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE OF THE CENTRAL ROCKIES. |