While tropical cyclone activity is pretty much nil in the Atlantic basin, the western Pacific is really percolating with two active systems currently, and maybe more on the way.

Tropical Storm Ketsana is currently moving WNW across the South China Sea after causing massive destruction (as well as many fatalities) in the northern Philippines. Most of the damage was caused by flooding and mudslides, as Ketsana was only a weak tropical storm as it crossed the archipelago. Manila was especially hard hit, receiving more rainfall in 12 hours as is normal for the entire month of September. Easterly shear has lessened over Ketsana and is allowing thunderstorms to consolidate near the center, and the storm has intensified to just below typhoon strength. The storm is expected to be a 75 kt. (85 mph) typhoon as it crosses the coast of Vietnam in about 48 hours, but this could be a conservative guess. Again, heavy rains will probably be the biggest danger, as several strong spiral bands have already crossed the coast into Vietnam.

Well east of that lies T.D. #18, about 675 miles ESE of Guam. This system is fighting easterly shear which has exposed the LLCC, but is expected to encounter better conditions and slowly intensify as it moves WNW. It is expected to pass very close to Guam as a mid-range tropical storm in about 2 days. The subtropical ridge is expected to hold and build westward. So this system could be a major threat to areas farther west in time.

On top of that there is a very healthy looking invest (99W) south of the Norther Marianas at about 10/145, that could well be classified shortly. Also another invest (90W) to the east of Kosrae is showing signs of organization as well.

All in all it figues to be a very active week or two for areas around the Western Pacific basin. Stay tuned.