Typhoon Melor has been staggering its way generally to the WNW. After a significant jog to the west yesterday, a bit of a trough dug down to its west and pulled Melor back to the northwest. The trough also imparted some shear on Melor, and it has not been strengthening today. The storm is about 130 miles ENE of Saipan, and should pass about 70 miles north of the island tonight. Winds are at 115 kts. Currently Saipan is reporting gusts to 37 mph and a pressure of 1000 mb. Unless the storm maks a move back to the SW sustained typhoon force winds should stay north of the island. Probably winds of 50-60 mph with gusts to 70 can be expected. The Northern Marianas are well equipped to handle typhoons, and I wouldn't expect this storm to cause a whole lot of disruption.

Later on Melor should recurve toward Japan in about 3 days. The models differ on how sharp a recurvature it will be. The JTWC is favoring one that will keep Melor just offshore. Other models (most notably the ECMWF) bring it much further west and over Japan. It will be interseting to see how this plays out.