First the good news. Hurricane NEKI has continued a mostly northward trajectory, keeping it well west of the main Hawaiian Islands. The impact to our local weather will be minimal, with a light southeasterly flow over the western islands, but with strong stable ridging aloft, showers will be spotty and light at best.

Now the bad news. Although slightly down from a peak of 105 knots about 12 hours ago and despite bucking 20 Knots plus of SW'erly shear, Hurricane NEKI is still packing a good 90 knots as she bears down on the "Leeward Hawaiian Islands" of Nihoa, Necker, the French Frigate Shoals, the Gardner Pinnacles and, to a lesser extent, Maro.

This area hasn't seen the likes of anything like NEKI in quite a few years, and I hate to think the impact she'll have on this fragile ecosystem of shoals and reefs and lagoons with it's native and endemic fish and sea life (monk seals, native bird populations, etc.) and all the highly fragile coral reefs. Hurricanes have a tendency to extract a severe toll in shallow waters with scouring and other effects. Not to mention what she'll do to these spendid sandy coastlines. Sure, these little isles are frequently buffeted by storms and high surf during the winter months, but a direct hurricane passage from the south is quite another matter entirely.

But at least Kauai or Oahu, or any of the other Islands, are not hunkering down at this minute under Cat 2 hurricane conditions, as would be the case if NEKI were located to it's east about 400 or 500 miles from where she is presently churning the open ocean.

The system doesn't look nearly as symmetrical as 24 hours ago, due to a stiff 20 plus knots of vertical wind shear from the SW, disrupting the eyewall circulation, now open to the SW, and inducing an elongated SW to NE distorted shape as NEKI continues plodding to the north at less than 10 knots, soon to begin a slow recurvature towards the right and gradual acceleration.

It's great that NEKI didn't recurve sooner and/or more sharply, as this would have brought it closer to Kauai, which has really took the brunt of hurricanes in the past, Iwa in '82 and more recently Cat 4 Iniki in '92, to name but a few.

But the deep tropics of the Central Pacific remain at least 1C above normal and El Nino conditions are apparently strengthening even further, so I'd have to say we are in a sort of 'peak hurricane season' here in the Central Pacific well into December.

For more info regarding that, click the link below, emphasizing the possibility of continuing tropical cyclone development for months to come.

NOAA Prepares Citizens in Hawaii for Possible El Nino Impacts

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