The Philippines dodged a major bullet last week with Typhoon Lupit, which turned away and recurved just before reaching Luzon Island, and possibly averting what could have been a major catastrophe. However, as is often the case in this cyclone-plagued part of the earth, we can look to the east and see the next big storm coming over the horizon.

TD #23W was upgraded to a 35 kt. tropical storm this morning and it remains at that intensity as it is passing through the Northern Marianas. It passed very close to the island of Rota a few hours ago and is now moving away from the islands. Rota had a pressure of 996 mb and winds gusting to over 55 mph as the storm passed by. The next name on the Western Pacific list would be Mirinae.

(Edit: As of 2100z storm has been upgraded to Typhoon Mirinae, with 65 kt. winds)

Tropical Storm 23W is moving steadily WNW, but is expected to turn more westward as strong ridging builds to the north. With low wind shear, excellent outflow and very warm SST's ahead of it, 23W is expected to undergo rapid intensification and be at least a 115 kt. (132 mph) typhoon as it moves into central Luzon in about 4 days.

Of course a lot can happen in the next 4 days, but it looks like this storm is in a much more predictable steering flow (rather than the weak steering flow that Lupit was in) and the Philippines need to start preparing for another major storm.