(Original Post Title: "Disturbance Expected to Become TS 'Agatha' ")

The 2010 Hurricane Season appears about to begin in earnest in the Eastern Pacific, with marked signs of increasing organization within a broad area of disturbed weather that the NHC has been monitoring for several days. This is quite normal for this basin for this time of year, as climatology clearly dictates and is the reason for this basin's hurricane season beginning 2 weeks earlier, on May 15th.

The NRL has recently reissued a ATCF (tropical cyclone formation alert) just as the NHC has increased the probability of cyclogenesis to 70% and model runs are now being initiated. The system has become quasi-stationary, with models diverging dramatically with regard to track, though SHIPS intensity does have it nearing Hurricane strength by day 5, assuming it stays in the EastPac basin, thus permitting gradual strengthening and not coming ashore within this time frame.

The greatest danger at this time appears to be strong onshore winds depositing copious rainfall over El Salvador and areas westward along the Mexican coastline, and along with the torrential rains the strong possibility of flash flooding and mudslides for those affected areas.

Were the disturbance to intensify to Tropical Storm as expected, it would be christened 'Agatha', the first named tropical cyclone of the Northern Hemisphere 2010 Hurricane Season. (Africa to Dateline)

Finally, it's worth mentioning that at least 3 of the models (LBAR, HWRF and BAMD) has this system tracking across Mexico and into the southern GOM with the LBAR even taking the circulation directly across southern Florida. Even the NOGAPS is indicating a tendency towards the SWern Caribbean. But these scenarios are a long shot at best, as a storms' transit across Mexico usually spells it's demise, and upper level wind conditions in the southern gulf may not be favorable, just yet, for such a regeneration to occur. Although unlikely, it certainly bears watching, as early season systems like this have been known to 'jump basins' in recent history.

...