Tropical Cyclone 03A developed yesterday from a disturbance in the center of the Arabian Sea and is threatening to make a real mess of things in areas farther north, especially Pakistan. It is currently moving NW along the southwest edge of a ridge over the NE Arabian Sea. In about 24 hours 03A should reach the western edge of the ridge and turn north. By 48 hours it should recurve NE and accelerate toward Pakistan, making landfall in about 72 hours very near Karachi according to JTWC.

03A has been steadily strengthening and is currently at 90 kts. It is expected to peak at about 120 kts. and still be at about 110 kts at landfall.

With the shape of the coastline in that area I could see this storm having a devastating storm surge. The last storm I could find to hit this area was 02A back in May 1999 which hit at 110 kts. According to the JTWC annual report that one caused about 700 fatalities. Hopefully people will remember that storm and be prepared.

Some models (such as the GFS) take this storm much closer to Oman before recurving, so they will have to watch this one too. Interestingly, 3 years ago at this time the system that would eventually become T.C. Gonu was forming. That storm would peak at 145 kts. and later cause billions of dollars of damage in Oman before landfalling in Iran.