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I've been watching this area a bit the last few days, and although I could be wrong, I am thinking this is not the same system from a few days ago. It appears that the original system got kicked out by a deep trough that swung across Spain and France, then the northern part lifted out and left a deep cutoff that drifted SE across Spain and into the Mediterranean a couple days ago. Italy and France have been in the news lately due to massive flooding that has been occurring. Regardless of whether this is the same system or a different one, it has the potential to be devastating if it drifts north or NE toward the coast. The globals seem to want to keep it fairly stationary while gradually filling it, but the models don't always handle these types of systems well. Pressures seem to be falling slowly along the coast of France, ranging from 1009 to 1011 mb. |