Wed May 29 2013 06:30 AM
Re: East Pac TS Barbara Approaching Land - Heads Toward Bay of Campeche


Tropical Storm Barbara has all the hallmarks of a tropical cyclone that, given just enough time over water, would likely become a very significant, and possibly major, hurricane, but Barbara is probably within a day of landfall.

As of 2AM PDT, Tropical Storm Barbara is now estimated to be a 60 MPH Tropical Storm, which could be conservative. Given this, coupled with Barbara's continued northeasterly motion, a track that is generally forecast to continue up to and through landfall, the government of Mexico has issued a Hurricane Watch from Puerto Angel to Barra De Tonala.

Below: Barbara at 9:15 UTC on 5/29/2013

Late Week Conditions for Barbara Redevelopment on Atlantic Side Possibly Set to Increase
While shear is still moderate to high over much of the western Atlantic, conditions for development out of the remains of Barbara - or its associated trough - appear to be increasing somewhat, such that by the end of the workweek things could have an opportunity to gel.

Already overnight, pressures have been falling throughout the Northwest Caribbean and Southwestern Gulf of Mexico. In addition, there is no doubt that moisture is on the rise in the Caribbean, and once the trough traveling through the middle of the CONUS starts to pull out, net effective shear may actually turn supportive in the GOM.

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