Tropical Storm Flossie's final bid at further strengthening (for now, more on that later) appears to be well under way at this hour. Just how much strengthening remains to be seen, before she passes over a fairly steep gradient in SST isotherms, and the waters below Flossie drop to sub-26 C levels. Additionally, some increase in shear is expected later in the forecast period, both factors likely contributing to an expected weakening trend out beyond the 24 to 36 hour time frame.

"Flossie" appears to have her sights set on the Hawaiian Islands and should pass very near to, or directly through, the Island Chain by Monday or Tuesday. Tropical Storm Watches and Warnings will likely be required, as a (fortunately) weakening Flossie approaches from the ESE. Latest Model Runs remain fairly tightly clustered and the current NHC forecast track lies just on the southern edge of the Guidance Envelope.

The big questions, currently unanswered at this hour, is how close, how strong, and how juicey will Flossie be upon her arrival in the Hawaiian Islands ?? Even weak and dissipating depressions have been know to unleash torrential rains and destructive flash flooding over the Islands in years past.

Latest Forecast from the NHC in Miami (11 pm Thursday, HST or 5 am Friday, EDT) currently forecasts Flossie to be still at tropical storm status, as she arrives at the Big Island's doorstep around midnight, Monday night, Hawaii local time.

Hopefully, a weakening Flossie will bring some much needed rain to Maui and the Big Island, as we've had several relatively dry winters in a row, and drought conditions still exist in many areas of the state.

But just how much WIND Flossie will still be packing, and how well the moisture envelope holds together, will ultimately determine Flossie's effects as she traverses through the Hawaiian Islands.

Next Post: Tropical Storm Flossie's Meteorological and Thermodynamic Considerations