(Weather Guru)
Fri Aug 16 2013 06:43 PM
Central Pacific Gets Hyperactive

The normally peaceful Central Pacific has all of a sudden become a hotbed of tropical activity, with 3 areas of interest currently ongoing. One is already a named storm, Pewa, one is a strong invest (90C) and one is a dying former East Pac invest.

Tropical Storm Pewa formed early today about 1300 miles SW of Honolulu and is moving W at 14 mph with 40 mph winds. It looks quite healthy on satellite with nice outflow and persistent deep convection over the center. The forecast takes it west to WNW through the next five days which should keep it north of the Marshall Islands, although the northernmost islands are in the cone. It is expected to peak at around 60 mph before hitting shear ahead of a ULL and weakening. Pewa should cross into the JTWC's area of responsibility sometime later tomorrow. Pewa is the first system to get a name from the Central Pacific list since Omeka in December of 2010.

A few hundred miles ENE of Pewa is Invest 90C. Yesterday it appeared this was the more likely system to develop (80% chance at one point) until Pewa decided to steal the show. The outflow from Pewa is imparting shear on 90C which is hampering development. Still on satellite you can see a good amount of spin and if Pewa moves a little farther away this might have a chance to develop (currently a 30% chance).

Last (and least) to the S of the Big Island is a disturbed area which is getting sheared apart by the outflow from the two aforementioned systems and probably will cease to exist before long (0% chance).

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