(Weather Guru)
Mon Aug 19 2013 06:16 PM
Re: Central Pacific Gets Hyperactive

So after going about 32 months without seeing a system form in the Central Pacific basin we have now had 3 systems (!) form in the last 4 days. I haven't checked but my guess is one would have to go back a long way in the history books to find the last time 3 systems formed in 4 days.

Tropical Storm Unala formed last night out of what was Invest 90C, bypassing TD status to become a TS. Its main problem was that it formed too close to TS Pewa (less than 300 miles) and the stronger Pewa quickly drew Unala into its circulation and absorbed it.

Then today we had TD Three-C develop a few hundred miles farther east. This is the one that was south of the Big Island on Friday and looked dead in the water and was even dropped for a time from the TWO, but sprang back to life over the weekend and has maintained persisistent deep convection near the center despite fairly strong westerly shear. The official forecast calls for the shear to win out and Three-C is not expected to be named, but the way things are going, I wouldn't count it out.

Southeast of the Big Island there is another tropical wave that has been given a 10% chance of development. It looks pretty anemic currently but conditions may improve in a couple days, if it lasts that long.

As for Pewa it appeared to be going through a rapid intensification phase yesterday and became a typhoon for a time, but it ran into a strong ULL to its northwest and the southerly shear has weakened it today back to a strong TS. Having to absorb TS Unala might have disrupted it as well. The shear is expected to lessen in about 36 hours and Pewa should intensify as it moves NW.

In case anyone's counting this now makes 6 classifiable systems so far in the Central Pacific basin (counting Gil, Henriette and Flossie which came over from the EPAC) which pulls it one ahead of the Atlantic basin's 5 storms. Who woulda thunk it!

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