(Weather Guru)
Tue Oct 14 2014 06:18 PM
Re: Central Pacific: TS Ana to approach Hawai'i

Hawaii is really going to have to watch this one. Ana looks quite a bit more threatening than Iselle was for a couple of reasons. First, Ana should be approaching from the southeast which will mean it should have warmer SST's to pass over on its approach. Second, shear doesn't look like it's going to be much of an issue with Ana.

I think the intensity forecast from CPHC looks pretty conservative. SST's aren't super-warm (27-27.5 C) but I would think warm enough to support at least a strong Cat 2 storm.

Still a lot of model runs to go before the track becomes clear but if I were anywhere in the Hawaiian Islands I'd be starting to prepare now for a hurricane.

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