Sergio is surging over the Baja this morning and losing its definition, with almost all of the convection displaced well to the northeast, leaving a shallow, expanding surface cyclone trailing behind.

Soon-to-be Post-Tropical Sergio or its remnant mid-level low will likely fly across mainland Mexico to arrive in southern New Mexico and/or extreme southwest Texas by midday Saturday. Combing with mid-latitude features, Sergio's remains will pose potentially serious flash flood and rock/mudslide risks from mainland Mexico into the southwest to central United States this weekend into early next week.