Ed Dunham
|
| (Former Meteorologist & CFHC Forum Moderator (Ed Passed Away on May 14, 2017)) |
| Sun Jul 06 2003 11:27 AM |
An Active Atlantic
|
(Note that this post also appears on the Main Page as a new article - I've kept it here to keep both threads a little more up to date with current events.)
ED
The Atlantic 'wave train' appears to be gearing up for a period of increased activity - at least 'active' for early July. Wind shear is not an inhibiting factor from 25W to about 65W. The Atlantic upper ridge is not significantly strong but it has elongated east-west thus providing a steady movement westward for any tropical waves emerging off the west coast of Africa. Any developing systems at the lower level are not likely to outrun their convection at the upper levels and SSTs are now warm enough to enhance any developing system.
The wave at 10N 50W at 06/09Z has maintained good structure overnight and is certainly an area of potential development in the next day or two. Also worth watching is the wave at 10N 28W at 06/06Z - this one may turn out to be the more significant of the two - and it should be near 15N 50W by mid-day on Thursday. The GFS seems to have initialized fairly well on the second easterly wave.
Cheers,
ED
|
Ed Dunham
|
| (Former Meteorologist & CFHC Forum Moderator (Ed Passed Away on May 14, 2017)) |
| Sun Jul 06 2003 01:29 PM |
|
Area of Interest - Invest 95L
|
NRL has just started an invest on the western wave located at 10.5N 51W at 06/13Z. The tropical models move the system to the west northwest and bring the cyclone to Tropical Storm strength by Monday evening. Development certainly has a chance, especially if the movement becomes a little more west northwesterly in the next 12-18 hours.
ED
| Rich B |
| (British Meteorologist) |
| Sun Jul 06 2003 04:40 PM |
CycloMax: Watch and Warning Summary (95L)
|
CycloMax International issued a Tropical Cyclone Formation Alert for 95L at 1400z today.
A Tropical Depression Watch has now (1700z) been issued for the Windward Islands from Martinique south to Trinidad and Tobago.
Go to CycloMax International AHC for further details.
Regards,
| Rich B |
| (British Meteorologist) |
| Sun Jul 06 2003 06:51 PM |
|
CycloMax: Watch and Warning Summary (95L)
|
At 1945z, 6th, CycloMax International has upgraded the Tropical Depression Watch to a Tropical Depression Warning / Tropical Storm Watch for parts of the Windwards. For further details please visit the CycloMax International AHC page.
Regards,
| Rich B |
| (British Meteorologist) |
| Mon Jul 07 2003 09:34 AM |
|
CycloMax: Watch and Warning Summary (95L)
|
At 0930z, 7th, CycloMax International has issued the following:
TROPICAL STORM WARNING - Martinique to Grenada
Tropical Depression Warning/Tropical Storm Watch DISCONTINUED - Trinidad and Tobago
For further details please go to the CycloMax International AHC page.
Regards,
| Rich B |
| (British Meteorologist) |
| Mon Jul 07 2003 10:17 PM |
|
CycloMax: Watch and Warning Summary (95L)
|
At 2130z, 7th, CycloMax International has issued the following:
TROPICAL STORM WARNING *DISCONTINUED* - Martinique to Grenada.
For further details please go to the CycloMax International AHC page.