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kate is technically a september storm, but is approaching cat 3 status today and that will be over gray's season number for majors. larry may or may not get any stronger, looking like a mexican threat. basin shear is up.. maybe its nearing the end, maybe things will get hectic again. SOI keeps pulsing up and down in 1-2 week intervals and should keep the regime of pattern-triggered development active until at least the middle of the month. i'm thinking it will pulse strongly enough to give us something else in november.. can't independently verify this, though. HF 1707z03october |