Ed, thanks for updating your 2003 forecast. Your numbers sound good for the season, and I won't be commenting on the pattern likely pattern this year. Why? Jason Moreland, Rob Mann, and I will be releasing our official 2003 forecast on May 25th (maybe a few days later).

As for 1985 being an analog, I could agree with that somewhat. For one thing, 1984 had negative ENSO conditions, but 2002 didn't. There isn't much of a comparison there, IMO. But if you flip the coin over, you can clearly see that the La Nina this year could be very similar to 64, 95, and 85. This would mean a weak to moderate La Nina by the peak of the hurricane season. Although I don't fully agree with the atmo patterns that you are predicting this season, myself (and my forecasting partners) forsee a rough hurricane season. More details to come in our seasonal, obviously.

One last bit: 1985 had a westerly QBO, but this year is expected to have an easterly QBO. 1985 had a westerly QBO and 3 major hurricanes. However, 3-4 major hurricanes (with an east QBO) looks likely for this year. I believe that 85's ATC wasn't so strong, but this year it is. I suppose that's where the trade-off is.

I look forward to another great season of tracking!