I'm going with 14/8/4. All data I've perused indicates that this will be a memorable season. I don't have a clue if these numbers will pan out, but I went into last year with a 13/8/3 prediction. I was better on my landfalls.

So far we know that the mean trof position is likely to be even further west than last year's. It is liable to fluctuate between the Western Lakes and the Northern Rockies. Last year's avenue through the US was between 88-92W. This year it's more wide open. Landfalls could occur between 80-97W depending on relative conditions at the time the storms are in the area. I had a guru tell me that he believes the the MJO will be in the area in August. That could mean an earlier start to the meat of the season than we've seen in a couple of years. I'm predicting a minimum of 5 named storms in some part of the Gulf of Mexico.

We could see as many as 6 or 7 landfalls this year. I'll go out on a limb and predict 1 hit between the Upper Mexican Coast and Corpus; 1 landfall between Corpus and New Iberia/Vermillion Bay, 2 landfalls between New Iberia and Panama City Beach, 1 landfall between Key West and PCB, and a landfall in SE Florida which could be a dual landfall (ala Betsy, Andrew, et al). The Outer Banks is always a potential target, so that goes without saying. And there's always the shot that if the Bermuda Ridge is placed just right, there could be a hit between coastal Virginia and Maine.

In the peak part of the season, some indications are that the NAO may be neutral to slightly positive this year. If my failing memory is right, we had a negative NAO for the heart of the season last year. Water profiles in the Gulf and off the east coast are somewhat similar to last year. In some places, the water is already running warmer, the exception being right along the shoreline in the NE. In contrast to last season, there is no serious drought in the mid-Atlantic. One lesson from last year was that whenever the water is warm off the NE Coast and there are drought conditions in the mid-Atlantic, they will be broken by the hurricane season.

What could be interesting this year, and I'll be waiting for Kevin, Rob and TWW's forecast due out Sunday is whether or not the MJO is a factor in September and early October. If my source is right and its peak effect is earlier in the season, we'll have to see when it comes back around again in relation to whatever the Fall brings. It's almost like 2003 could peak differently than what we saw in 2002 and 2001.

As noted in other posts, the NOAA predicts storm tracks to be further south this year, so there is a good chance that we might see more CV storms or those originating in the Atlantic. This could mean landfalls of stronger storms than the close-in stuff we saw last year that consisted in all but 1 case of tropical storms. This is unknown, but my money is with storms being stronger this year than what we saw last year.

I'm not honing in on a specific target zone, because the entire Gulf and SE coast looks to be ripe for mother nature's pickins this year. (I had Bay St. Louis-Pensacola last year). If the Bermuda Ridge is as strong of an influence as what I'm thinking (and I was dead on that last year) there will be an aiming mechanism.

Joe B ranks 1995 as one of the analog years with similar water termperature in the Pacific and precipitation patterns across the states. Some differences include a negative NAO and warmer water further east in the Atlantic. FYI, here are the tracks for the 1995 Hurricane Season. One will note the fair number of gulf hits (Dean, Erin, Opal) but the otherwise incredible amount of fish spinners that year. There were 18 named storms.

Now I'm not thinking we're giong to have 18 named storms in 2003, but if for some insane reason we did, there would be a tremendous landfall potential.

Steve