my obs: think the northern part of the system is going to become dominant. there is an elongation to it, and the upper extent of the low/trough has an anticyclone apparent overhead. also the low level easterlies are weaker at that subtly northern latitude.. suspect this area where convection is present and regenerating is where a real sfc center will evolve.
as far as future track goes.. i'll just set some landmarks and see how they turn out.
tomorrow this time, close to the coast in SE florida, tropical storm. onshore overnight.
late thursday, tropical storm, west of naples, south of the panhandle.
from there i think it will head more or less due west, reaching the western gulf coast on sat night/sun morning.
going to once over the models and see what support for these ideas is there. sort of unusual to start making predictions before checking resources.. but that's my gut talking.
anyhow, if ed's implying a recurvature in the gulf i'm skeptical of the idea. mostly because this trough has to get out of here some time soon or i'll go nuts.
by the way, see the convection in west africa? no, not the itcz level stuff, i'm talking over mauritania and the western sahara. what in the world? maybe our SAL layer or super-dry air mass is about to change.
HF 2326z12august