well, i just posted on something like this over on the main board.. not really the same conclusion, but ed may have found the piece of the puzzle i was missing. honestly from watching the low cloud motions away from the storm i don't see how there can be any kind of surface low.. but the only way i could tell for sure is if the convection totally goes out.. short of that it's always possible that there's a really awkward center down there.
based on how well the convection is going.. at least some of the dynamics are still there.. so t.d. 9 really can't be called out until they go away. if they did.. it would be disappointing in a way since it would bust my (and everybody else's) ideas, but on the same token it would be for the better.. if this develops it has florida written all over it.
HF 0409z23august