I spent a considerable amount of time on Friday examining the likely level of activity for 2005 and came to two conclusions:
1. My initial thoughts for 8/4/1 were too low, and
2. Dr Gray's preliminary numbers of 11/6/3 seem to be very realistic.

I don't really expect too much of a pattern change for the 2005 season. The ITCZ has retreated well to the south (similar to last year) and extends across northern South America toward the west northwest (also similar to last year). As the ITCZ lifts north in the Spring it will promote a slightly better chance than last year for an early season storm to form. Not a great chance, but a May or June storm will certainly be possible in the southwestern Caribbean.

My expectations on ENSO have changed considerably, and while a weak El Nino will be around for a few months, I no longer believe that it will reach moderate intensity and therefore it will not last as long. A weak El Nino may hang around for awhile but I it looks like it will not be much of an influence on the totals for the season.

Threat areas would seem to be pretty much as stated earlier with all of the Texas coast to western Louisiana in a potential danger zone - can't get any more specific on this area since it will all depend on the strength of the Atlantic ridge and the extent to which it ridges into the Gulf of Mexico. With the axis of the ridge expected to be a little further north at times (a more normal pattern), south Florida would also be at a greater risk during the upcoming season. I also expect that one or two recurving storms (sliding offshore the east coast of Florida - and jarring nerves) will pose a threat to the eastern Carolinas. So far this winter, the jetstream has been riding at a more northern latitude and if this trend continues through the summer, New England would not be a likely threat area.

My initial thoughts are for a normal summer pattern with minimal El Nino influence and not quite as hot in the Southeast as it was during the Spring and early Summer last year. With a normal pattern I would expect a more normal Cape Verde season with some long-track storms in the mid to late Summer. Best Analog years are 1958 and 1978 and, for track pattern only, 1951. My initial outlook numbers are 11/7/3.

So far, the following seasonal forecasts were made for 2005 (taken from the 2004 Storm Forum):

Dr Gray: 11/6/3
TSR: 14/8/4 (also the average for the past 10 years)
ED : 11/7/3
Clark: 13/7/3
HanKFranK: 17/11/5
Keith234: 12/6/4
LI Phil: 12/7/2
James88: 13/7/3
Heather: 14/7/4

Here is your chance to add your own thoughts and early season forecasts for the number of Named Storms/Hurricanes/Major Hurricanes. Just like last year, I'll 'freeze' the numbers around June 1st - as conditions change you can certainly revise your forecast for the season until then. Give it your best shot!
Cheers,
ED