Excellent analysis Ed (yeah, like I'd know), but it certainly seems reasonable in mid-January. I think we should all update our numbers in April, and then again, just before June 1. I share your thoughts about ENSO and the weak el nino not being too much of a factor. Of course, the SOI, PNA, NAO, CIA & FBI will also have to be considered.

Also a question...should we get an "off season" storm such as we had in 2003, with Ana, Odette & Peter, I know they would "officially" count towards predictions, but for our purposes here, should we only count our "in season" storms towards our totals? Just a thought, I'll leave the call up to Mr. Dunham.

Please inform the varmint his constantly changing numbers will be subject to editing this season. His 6/1/05 guess WILL remain in his signature ALL SEASON.

Thank you. Thank you very much.

Cheers,

LI Phil

Everything counts, including Subtropical Storms - no matter what the month. If we get 3 named storms before June 1st, I'd imagine that quite a few folks will be updating their numbers