a familiar-looking spike of cool SSTs near the galapagos has started asserting itself in the last couple of weeks. it's early to say anything yet, could be transient.... just watch it into the spring. we've had neutral to moderate el nino conditions since 2002, so things ought to swing back to ENSO cold before too many more months go by anyway.. with a cold-natured PDO template to work against, i don't think we'll have too many strong or persistent el nino's for the next decade or two.
HF 0450z08february