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Tropical Depressio number 1 has formed southwest of the Cayman Islands and is moving slowly northward. The center of TD#1 is poorly defined with most of the convection to the north and east of the center. SSTs are warm - near 30C and wind shear is light, but it will take another day for this system to get better organized. Models take the cyclone to the north and north northwest into the east central Gulf of Mexico. Intensification is probable - but it will be a slow process. This is the place to post your thoughts on the future track and intensity of TD1 - and the reasons for those thoughts. Cheers, ED |